EUROPE'S MAGICAL STRATEGIC THINKING AND MAIN BATTLE TANKS -- thread:
There was and is a paradox, if not absurdity, in the long slowness and continuing partiality of #WesternEurope's decision to provide #Ukraine with #mainbattletanks (#MBTs). /1
Then, the moment came for these machines to be used for what they had been initially constructed and purchased - rather than being, as hitherto, simply decommissioned and scrapped. /3
To be sure, even as Europe's largest war since 1945 continues unabated, most European main battle #tanks will nevertheless be, as for decades before, decommissioned and scrapped -- without ever having seen real action on a #battlefield. /5
The Ukrainian army meanwhile will continue be underarmed in its fight against the same Moscow imperialism that was the reason to build the thousands of European tanks currently in service, in the first place. /END
While Germany has recently provided significant help to Ukraine, Berlin has also significant historical responsibility vis-a-vis Kyiv. In 1941-44, Germany devastated Ukraine. Since 2014, Berlin has indirectly helped Moscow to devastate Ukraine,.../1 @DUHK_2020@DGO_Berlin@dgapev
...the legitimacy and utility of the "#SpecialMilitaryOperation" and #PutinRegime. Once this happens, much of the occupied territories will be surrendered by #Russian troops to Kyiv and not have to be recaptured by #Ukrainian troops. /END
Commenting thread on the below and similar analyses:
There is too much emphasis, in many assessments of #Russia's 2014-15 & 2022 invasions of #Ukraine, on allegedly fundamental or even fatal mistakes made in these decisions by #Putin & his entourage. /1 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/13…
The ideological predisposition towards an irredentist revanche, in the neo-Soviet & -Tsarist elite of #Russia, has been strong since the 1990s. This imperial drive was waiting to become unleashed, and has been marginally contained by rational calculus & strategic deliberation. /2
It was looking for different ad hoc opportunities rather than developing competing long-term #strategies to become implemented. Soft, dark, sharp and other forms of non-military power instruments were only applied to the degree that they could replace traditional #hardpower. /3
Zuerst müsste die russisch besetzte Landverbindung von der #Krim zum #Donbas beseitigt werden. Der Isthmus von #Perekop zwischen der Festlandukraine und Krim kann von #Russland womöglich lange gehalten werden... /3
Congratulations to the writers of #VolodymyrZelenskyy's excellent speech! While most people lionize now #Zelenskyy, I do not think that another president of #Ukraine would have been much worse. /1 - THREAD
Imagine #VolodymyrZelenskiy had not entered the presidential race and there had been a different contest and election in early 2019. /2
THREAD ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: Every additional Russian missile or drone hitting Ukrainian civilian buildings or critical infrastrucure has wider implications for Europe and the world. /1
(Picture: Summer 2019 @vostoksos mission: Recording gunfire at the Donbas contact line.)
The March 2022 decision by #NATO to reject #Ukraine's request for a #NoFlyZone was taken quickly & resolutely. However, deeper repercussions of this seemingly clear-cut case have remained under the radar screen. What Kyiv wanted was not NATO's active participation in the war. /2
Instead of inviting an out-of-area mission comparable to NATO's bombing of Serbia in 1999, the Ukrainian request for a #NoFlyZone was about protection from rather than an attack on Russia. It would be a bilateral agreement between Brussels & Kyiv regarding Ukraine's territory. /3