الأزمة #السورية ستدخل عامها الـ 13 في مارس/آذار القادم، ورغم أن مستوى العنف في جميع أنحاء البلاد منخفض الآن نسبيا مقارنة بالسنوات الماضية، فإن الأزمة ما زالت بعيدة جدا عن نهايتها، وفقا للأكاديمي تشارلز ليستر:
نشرت مجلة "فورين بوليسي" مقالا لمدير برامج #سوريا ومكافحة الإرهاب والتطرف في معهد الشرق الأوسط ،(@MiddleEastInst) تشارلز ليستر، قال فيه إن الوضع الراهن في البلاد غير مستدام على الإطلاق وسيتغير لا محالة.
According to recent leaks, #ISIS's evolved administrative structure is ruffling some internal feathers in the #MiddleEast.
The crux of internal tensions lies in the increasingly blurry lines of authority over operations, leadership succession & resource use in #Iraq & #Syria.
Leaks claim #ISIS's "Ardh al-Mubarakah" office manages operations in #Syria, #Lebanon & #Turkey, while the Bilad al-Rafidayn office runs #Iraq.
The latter was also running ops in #Iran -- until recently at least, when #Iran was folded into the #Afghanistan "Al-Siddique" office.
These recent leaks - from normally reliable sources - claim Abu al-Hassan's succession in March 2022 was decided by the Ardh al-Mubarakah office, without any consultation with the Bilad al-Rafidayn office in #Iraq.
He then risked locating to #Daraa, also without any consolation.
Yesterday saw an intriguing incident outside al-Bab in northern #Aleppo:
- A prominent member of a pro-#HTS [semi-breakaway] wing of Ahrar al-Sham, Saddam al-Mousa (Abu Uday) was killed outside his home in what was described as a "drone strike."
Abu Uday had become notorious for facilitating #HTS's advance into northern #Aleppo in Oct 2022 -- & in its wake, he secured control of the valuable al-Hamran crossing (to #SDF areas) & agreed to share its revenue streams with #HTS.
He was also a known player in the arms trade.
Abu Day's stubborn refusal to back down & turn al-Hamran back to the Syrian National Army (SNA) had become a source of acute frustration for #Turkey -- both #TSK & MIT.
Numerous attempts were made to evict him, by force & negotiation & their failure was grating Turkey-SNA ties.
One thing — as @GaryLineker admits, the @BBC (& the West writ large) failed to hold #Russia to account in ‘18 (amid FAR worse crimes/abuse). Time to acknowledge there’s probably a reason why. Nobody’s willing to go there, though.
- "It’s the most controversial World Cup in history.. corruption.. migrant workers.. women's rights.. LGBTQ.."
@BBCRosAtkins@GaryLineker@BBC And now news that @GaryLineker was paid ~$2 million by #Qatar for coverage of the Champions League until 2012 -- including *after* #Qatar won the World Cup bid and before any of the reforms that followed.
The @UN's Alena Douhan (from #Belarus) just wrote a 6,500-word report on sanctions & human rights in #Syria.
She visited #Syria for 12 days -- but only spent time in #Assad-held areas.
Her conclusion?
Lift all sanctions. Finance reconstruction. Nothing was the regime's fault.
@UN That the @UN calls Douhan an "independent human rights expert" is staggering.
She made no effort to visit areas not controlled by #Assad's regime & goes out of her way to thank the regime for how "transparent & constructive" it was during her visit.
Yes, I bet they were.
@UN Throughout her 6,500-word report, the @UN's "expert" makes repeated citations to "data & reports received during my visit."
Guess what? All that "transparent" data blames #Syria's ills on foreign powers. There's a surprise.
But our "expert" doesn't question that. Of course not.
Increasing momentum on NE #Syria repatriations is welcome news -- but to take full advantage of it, the repatriation process needs to be made much easier.
Most cases, from start to finish, can take 12-18 months, which is far too long -- most of the obstacles are in NE #Syria.
There's also a clear need for more centralized multinational leadership on the al-Hol/Roj crisis -- the @ICRC have established a special coordinator's office & the US Govt now has a senior inter-agency working group.
But there's no international leader to better coordinate.