Thread by @IranChinaGuy

Recently, #IranChina ties have faced faux pas, criticism, and stagnation. Tomorrow, President Raisi will visit #Beijing to try and jump-start #Sino-#Iranian cooperation. 🇨🇳🇮🇷

A brief #thread 🧵of what's happened recently in #Iran-#China relations:

aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/13…

In March of 2020, #Iran and #China signed the fabled "Iran-China Deal", in which China reported pledged massive cooperation with and investment in Iran over the next two-and-a-half decades. The deal ostensibly called for $400 billion in investment...

nytimes.com/2021/03/27/wor…

But as you may be able to guess from the number of qualifiers, the deal was, much like China's espionage efforts, full of hot air. Many experts, myself included, pointed out that the $400 billion number was almost completely fabricated...

thediplomat.com/2021/04/china-…

Other signs of Sino-Iranian diplomatic engagement came over the course of the next year, such as opening a Chinese embassy in Bandar Abbas. The most significant move, Iran joining the SCO, was largely symbolic and has yet to lead to anything substantial.

bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2021/…

Although Iranian oil sales to China are currently strong, these, too, are more affected by market considerations than a strategic commitment to Tehran. Sales to China fell dramatically after Russia discounted oil after the invasion of Ukraine.

aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/19…

The policy was part of a larger shift of Iranian elites towards Russia and China, proudly proclaimed as the "Look East" policy. Raisi was keen to project strength and break Iran's international isolation, especially amidst the ongoing JCPOA negoations.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/26/ira…

But the deal also triggered widespread criticism from those who felt Iran should maintain a balanced foreign policy, and those who were suspicious of China's intent - as well as those who spread rumors that China was preparing to buy Iranian territory.

rferl.org/a/explainer-ir…

But despite all fanfare, not much has happened. Little progress was made as sanctions and fear of poor return on investment held Chinese investors back. In Raisi's first term, China has only invested $162m, less than Afghanistan and Turkey.

thediplomat.com/2022/01/china-…

Relations hit a new low last month, when Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia triggered a minor diplomatic crisis. Meant to signal a return of Chinese global influence post-Covid, the trip highlighted the growing gap between China's flagging ties to Iran...
thediplomat.com/2022/12/xi-jin…

...and its rapidly expanding ties to the GCC. In addition, China infuriated the Iranian media when it endorsed a statement released by the GCC that mentioned the UAE's claim to several islands in the Gulf under Iranian control.

tehrantimes.com/news/479615/Ch…

Although the Chinese statement was mild and non-committal, Iranian society had a strong reaction. Reformist papers especially published op-eds criticising China and government's ties with Beijing, with one even endorsing Taiwanese independence.

taipeitimes.com/News/front/arc…

Eventually, the Iranian government summoned the Chinese ambassador and lodged an official complaint, but took no serious action. China dispatched Vice Premier Hu Chunhua to re-assure Iran that China does not get involved in the affairs of other countries.
aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/1…

Since then, the two sides have been trying to reset relations, but in the media, in think tanks, and among officials, enthusiasm for China and Looking East has noticeably waned. Watch this space for my analysis on how this trip may - or more likely, may not - change that!