#cyclical means you exit as the cycle matures .....that was 2022 if not 2021 for 80% of #commodities. Then 60% will experience a 55-75% fall in spot prices. Then one revisits in 2H 2023 or 2024 for reentry. If one holds through the cycle they don't understand what they own.
To call the bottom of #commodities#uranium in 2023, one must call the market bottom 1st, if you have no idea on that, then you will accummulate too early, as many are doing.
Note: under aggressive #contagion conditions 95% of #commodities are heavily correlated together.
The 5% will likely be extremely short on inventory levels, with lack of short term supply response.
#uranium spot market receives reloading of up to 1.5mlbs per month...
...therefore a truly real supply shortage is when Utilities are forced to buy over 1.5mlbs per month, with other buyers taking the total to over 2.5mlbs per month, then the spot price will actually trend higher. Until this happens (or a sustained risk on period later in 2024)...
Thought of the day: Investor Survivability & Opportunity Kit for 2023:
- ensure you have 30%+ cash weighting for deployment into fresh asymmetric themes
- ensure you have exited ponzi tech and other rubbish which will implode within the next 12 months
- ensure 9 months cost cover
Last night at lows at a few #regionalbanks approached 0.2x book coupled with survivability features = new asymmetric theme
We expect the fear environment to worsen as the recession hits over the next 9 months, hence one must have coverage of all possible outcomes.
- personal cashflow coverage (9 months of reserves)
- 30% cash stack for opportunistic fresh asymmetric themes deployment
Thought of the day: Banks Runs aren't fun, 3rd party risk acceleration in stepping up, the breaking of the system is now at a pivotal point, 👉 markets will react accordingly. Bargain basement equity valuations will abound as risk tops out, fresh asymmetric theme entry for 2H2023
The week ahead for US #financials could see -20-25% corrections if regulators don't act to build confidence with depositors. This could flow into -5-8% S&P500 impact, high beta plays could take a 30% hit. Redux 2008.
The playbook is set....
Looks like depositors have been looked after, hence this will mitigate much of the damage.....recession is still incoming.