•Unresolved Debt ceiling
•Friday's negative day and bearish candlesticks
• Several neg. divergences
•Leading stocks reversed
• #VVIX bullish engulfing candle and #VIX1D daily higher highs higher lows points to more vol ahead
•GDP maybe ↓
$SPX
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
• Indices up week on high volume
•Buy the dip: Bullish action
•Volatility indicators are subdued
• $NDX, $FAANG, $SMH in good health
• $SPX, $NDX higher highs and higher lows
•Market broke out above resistance
•Breadth thrust last Wednesday #SPX
NEXT WEEK
Our take
•Debt ceiling will be solved
• #PCE will come lower
• #GDP will be OK
•Breakout zone is likely to be retested this week
•Price is firmly in positive Gamma
•We remain cautious due to still internal market weakness
• We still think #SPX will try to go after 4300, but a pullback is possible in next 2 weeks to retest the breakout area. Retest failure will indicate bull trap.
•Monthly close on lighter volume
•Negative divergences from classic indicators
•Tough talk from FEDs
•Inflation is sticky, rates ↑
• #Recession is here
• #GDP ↓
•Leading indicators ↓
• #AAPL earnings ↓
•Big #Gamma at 4000
•#SPX printed back-to-back Marubozu candlesticks
•Green week with higher volume
•Green month with candlestick body above the previous one
•Return to positive #Gamma regime
•Buy the dip: Bullish price action
•Breadth improvement
• +Open on Sunday, and eventually on Monday; possible mid-session/afternoon pullback, close near flat
•Market to move ↑ or slightly ↓ ahead of FOMC
-•#Semis will improve pushing↑
• #SPX to hit 4195
• #FOMC: shake out/not kill current ↑trend
•Upward momentum is lost
•Negative divergences and sell signals from classic indicators
•Big weekly bullish enfulfing candle on $VVIX
•Weekly bearish haramis on major indices
•Inflation is sticky, higher rates coming
• #Recession is here
•Major indices printed weekly higher lows and higher highs
• $VIX continues in strong downtrend
• Leading stocks holding support
•Dealers are holding net long positions
•Positive Gamma regime
•Buy the dip: Bullish price action
•The market will stay in the current range (4100/4160) through Tuesday
•Nothing has broken yet, we remain cautiously bullish, but moving up our flip levels (↑↓)
•Earnings will help float the market, but could be mixed
•Market is in decreasing weekly volume
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
•Valuations are high
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
•Bullish daily, weekly and monthly candles
•Momentum is up
•Tech is leading
•Sucessful retest of breakout zones
• #NDX made new higher low and higher high
• #SPX made new higher low
The Bear's take:
•Market is up in decreasing weekly volume
•Market is overbought
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
•Bullish daily, weekly and monthly candles
•Momentum is up
•Tech is leading
•Sucessful retest of breakout zones
• #NDX made new higher low and higher high
• #SPX made new higher low
According to the teachings of Sheldon Natemberg, 30 years Market Maker, Cboe Educator and author of the options Bible "Option Volatility & Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques"
•Rates and valuations are high
•Looming recession
•Geopolitical tensions ↑
•Very Bearish Gravestone doji on Friday
•More rates coming
•Market is extremely overbougth
•Dollar is going ↑
•Inflation/Commodities/Oil ↓
•SPX made a higher low and a higher high: Trend change
•Most charts are bullish
• $FAANG chart bullish
•All Breadth indicators are very strong
• $VIX, $VVIX still in strong donwtrend