Thread by @BalticDefRadar

#BBC and other media keeps quoting Russian mouth pieces issuing warnings. Whenever media quotes RU officials, the context and facts must be clarified. In this case:

- #Russia started its war of conquest against #Ukraine. Now they face consequences.

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bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

- Nearly entire RU army was sent into #Ukraine. That force is spent. RU will not be able to renew its offensive capability for the rest of 2023.

- Tactical battles will contiue, RU keeps some reserve, but it is UKR #counteroffensive which will decide what will happen next.

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- It is very unlikely that RU will be able to continue the defense of the occupied territories without another major mobilization.

- #Finland or #Japan could march all the way to Moscow largely unopposed, because there is barely any RU army left which is not in #Ukraine.

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- RU spent most of its missile stockpile on #Ukraine. It now sends missiles straight from the production line, with only a small critical reserve kept.

- The remaining RU missile stockpile is not even remotely close to #NATO stockpile, let alone the conventional NATO force.

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- #Ukraine demonstrated that MIM-104 #Patriot, #NASAMS and #IRIS-T arey extremely effective in taking out RU missiles.

- These air-defense systems already protect the #NATO eastern flank. More systems are being acquired. In addition to advanced jets patrolling the sky.

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- The bottom line: #Russia has been badly beaten in its war against #Ukraine. It can still inflict damage to Ukraine, but Russia is otherwise very vulnerable.

- In conventional military force, Russia has nothing to escalate with. It has no means to defend itself either.

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- "But nukes! What about the tactical nukes?!" Yes, there is a probability of their use. This could be a whole new thread, but to keep it short: the probability remains low, because it would raise the conflict to a truly global level with devastating consequences for Russia.

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- Western commentators often forget that the Russian political establishment has a lot of fears. There is a strong feeling of resentment, but also inferiority complex. The "collective Putin" fears the regime change but also the Western military power (see Able Archer 83).

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#Russian scaremongering stems both from their fears and propaganda, to convince their own and Western societies that their impotent military is still strong.

So, whenever media quotes RU officials and possible "escalation" because of #Ukraine: keep all this reality in mind!

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