Baltic Defence Radar Profile picture
Jun 6 4 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Russia blown up the Nova #Kakhovka dam in #Ukraine.

A reminder for some Western politicians: Russian regime just committed an ecological disaster and another major war crime. Russian fascism must be defeated and destroyed. It's perverted, sick and disgusting.

🧵 ...
1/4
On operational and other consequences:
- There will be no significant impact on UKR counter-offensive. #Ukraine may briefly pause to reassess the situation.
- The water level will increase, washing a lot of small settlements. #Kherson city is mostly on a higher land, though.

2/4
- RU is expecting to disrupt the #Ukraine's counter-offensive. RU miscalculated and messed up. Part of #Crimea will be left without water supply.
- The water levels will the decrease and stabilize. Here is a good article modelling the worst case.

cornucopia.se/2022/10/worst-…

3/4
- #Ukraine will have a lot of damage to handle after this disaster. However, the water is also washing up RU first lines of defense south of the river. When water levels will stabilize, there might even be new opportunities for the UKR forces.

4/4 Image

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More from @BalticDefRadar

May 31
#France and #Macron deserve a thread in the context of #Ukraine, #Russia and beyond.

- First, some historical context: France, just like #Britain, is a declining power. This process started with the loss of colonies after the World War 2.

🧵 ...

1/18

theguardian.com/world/2023/may…
- A clear geopolitical shift happen with the Suez Crisis in 1956, which marked the emergence of #USA and #USSR as the world powers.

- #France also experienced a humiliating military defeat by #Germany during the World War 2. That shaped rather pretentious politics of ...

2/18
.. Charles de Gaulle, who tried to restore the French power with dissenting views vis-a-vis #Americans and #British (or the "collective Anglo-Saxons"). In 1966, #France withdrawn from the #NATO's military command.

3/18
Read 19 tweets
May 30
#BBC and other media keeps quoting Russian mouth pieces issuing warnings. Whenever media quotes RU officials, the context and facts must be clarified. In this case:

- #Russia started its war of conquest against #Ukraine. Now they face consequences.

1/9

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
- Nearly entire RU army was sent into #Ukraine. That force is spent. RU will not be able to renew its offensive capability for the rest of 2023.

- Tactical battles will contiue, RU keeps some reserve, but it is UKR #counteroffensive which will decide what will happen next.

2/9
- It is very unlikely that RU will be able to continue the defense of the occupied territories without another major mobilization.

- #Finland or #Japan could march all the way to Moscow largely unopposed, because there is barely any RU army left which is not in #Ukraine.

3/9
Read 9 tweets
May 1
#Ukraine: the window of opportunity for the #counteroffensive has opened. Only the Ukrainian General Staff knows when and where it will take place, but it is imminent.

Some notes and points to watch:

- It will be a tough fight against the entrenched RU forces ..

🧵 1/10
.. and #Ukraine will not avoid attrition, but UKR has the necessary capability and a very realistic chance of success.

- The stakes of the upcoming operation are very high. If UKR will fail to achieve the strategic breakthrough, then the war might head into a stalemate.

2/10 Image
- If UKR forces will reach the shore in the south, then it will not only break the RU land bridge to Crimea, severely disrupting RU logistics, but will also reopen the access to the Sea of Azov. It would open a new avenue for operations in the sea and many problems for RU.

3/10
Read 10 tweets
Apr 28
#Ukraine certainly needs F-16s in the long term, but they would also be beneficial in the short term. A quick thread:

- UKR Air Force operates MiG-29 and Su-27/25/24 with old airframes, old avionics, weak radars and nearly no integration with the Western missiles/pods.

🧵.. 1/7
This is an old and technologically inferior equipment which has to be replaced. F-16 is most widely available multirole Western fighter jet and therefore it is the most practical candidate for #Ukraine's transition from the Soviet-era to the Western jets and missiles.

2/7
- UKR pilots can easily learn how to fly it. That is not a problem. However, it is unrealistic that UKR could conduct Composite Air Operations (COMAO) or SEAD/DEAD missions. Not only because it takes A LOT of training (and auxiliary systems) but also because RU ...

3/7
Read 8 tweets

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