Thread by @EricColumbus

THREAD: Will Trump issue quick pardons to anyone Mueller indicts? I doubt it. Here’s why.

2. A pardon would turn up the volume to 11, just like the Comey firing. Big risks for Trump.

3. While I wouldn’t bet the ranch on it, there’s a decent chance that pardons could cost him lotta GOP congressional support.

4. Sure, he might be able to get away with it, but there are several reasons why the risk probably isn’t worth it.

5. A pardon wouldn’t necessarily seal the deal. Depending on who’s indicted for what, state charges could still be brought.

6. For example, Mueller is reportedly working with the New York Attorney General in probing Manafort.
politico.com/story/2017/08/…

7. And a pardon that’s obviously intended to save Trump could well constitute obstruction of justice.

8. This would add to Mueller’s plate, and could boost impeachment chances if Democrats take over the House in 2019.

9. Instead, I expect Trump to play the pardon card by keeping it in his back pocket.

10. The mere possibility – likelihood? – of a pardon may deter some defendants and witnesses from flipping.

11. And Trump has sent signals that pardons might be coming. He reportedly told Flynn to “stay strong.”
yahoo.com/news/investiga…

12. He may have sent similar messages to other cronies in Mueller’s crosshairs.

13. The Arpaio pardon also sent a message: that Trump is willing to hand out comically unjustified pardons like candy.

14. But why rush things? Best to wait and see who – if anyone -- gets convicted. Wait to assess the evidence that emerges.

15. Maybe Trump won’t need to pardon anyone. Or maybe the heat will die down. Eventually Mueller’s investigation will end.

16. Or Maybe Trump won’t run for reelection and can issue pardons on his way out the door.

17. So I expect Trump to keep sending subtle “stay strong” signals. Maybe he’ll tweet about how a pardon would be premature, etc.

18. Coupled with his earlier actions, this could help ensure the loyalty he needs.

19. If you’re carrying a gun, you can deter someone without even using it. And the same is true of a key.

END OF THREAD