Thread by @MiekeEoyang

Ok, so everyone's got their hot takes on the #indictments today, sorry to be a little slow, but wanted to reflect. <thread>

Of the two indictments, the Manafort one is more buzzy, but it actually is less significant. Papadopolous is the bigger deal. 2/

Yes, Manafort got paid off by Yanukovich, who eventually fled to Russia, laundering $17M, and a variety of other crimes. 3/

But the Manafort indictment doesn't actually touch Trump or the campaign (as WH Spox noted). It's not everything they could get on him 4/

So there's still more that Manafort can offer Mueller, and note, there's no plea agreement filed here yet, like with Papadopolous. 5/

Papadopolous was arrested in mid-July, and only finalized the plea agreement in early October. That's a long time to negotiate/sing. 6/

More importantly, Papadopolous indictment is for actions DURING the campaign. He was trying to connect the Russians to Trump campaign. 7/

As @emptywheel notes, Papadopolous raised Russian interest to other Trump foreign policy advisors, like Sessions. theintercept.com/2017/10/30/jef… 8/

Read the Papadopolous indictment. It's what an espionage recruitment looks like -- flattery of someone w/access, invitations to visit. 9/

Papadopolous testimony can take team Mueller into the campaign's activities itself, to get to a bigger fish -- Flynn. 10/

And Flynn then takes you into the Oval Office, and potential actions that could be considered impeachable offenses 11/

We already know that the President wants immunity for Flynn. He asked Congress to give it via tweet. 12/

Flynn is just as shady in dealings w/repressive governments. See, e.g. Turkey.

AND Flynn eventually turns his bosses. It's his MO. 13/

Flynn turned on GWB w/ his report on intelligence in Afghanistan. Flynn turned on Obama after being J2, joining Trump. Loyal, he is not. 14/

That Flynn isn't in this batch of indictments is significant. It means there's way more to come. & Trump knows it. 15/

These indictments might be a test to see what Trump does. Is he going to start trying to pardon people? Or does he cut 'em loose? 16/

WH Spox statements today suggests that Trump is cutting 'em loose, hoping they're the sacrificial lambs. "It's not the campaign..." 17/

But the message that sends to the other witnesses is that Trump will not save you. He's only out to save himself. Maybe Ivanka. 18/

While the WH & Ty Cobb think they can skate by today, Bannon knows better. He knows Mueller is relentless. So Bannon's coming for him. 19/

Expect to see Bannon use Congress to shut down Mueller. Trying to cut the budget, limit the scope, etc. This is where you come in. 20/

This is where everyone in America needs to let their member of Congress know that they will not stand for interfering with Mueller. 21/

It's not just that you should oppose firing Mueller. But also oppose cutting his budget, staff or limiting scope. @make5calls can help. 22/

People should know that @RonDeSantisFL and others are trying to prevent Mueller from getting to the truth. 23/

When a hostile foreign power tries to recruit a campaign advisor like Papadopolous & finds a willing hand, we need an investigation. 24/

So make sure your member of Congress, Republican or Democrat knows that this isn't over & you want Mueller to continue. For America. <fin>