Thread by @MiekeEoyang

I would be happy to debate the merits of the Trump Administration's troop withdrawal from Syria, if I thought there was any strategic goal or plan behind it.

nytimes.com/2018/12/19/us/…

But as it is, it's seriously problematic. <thread>

First, it's clear that the Trump Administration has no particular end goal in mind on Syria, and is turning a blind eye to what will happen to the foreign ISIS fighters as they attempt to return to the countries where they are from or whether they will try to reconstitute there.

Second, Trump doesn't care about the humanitarian crisis, Assad's wholesale slaughter of his own people, or the potential slaughter of the Kurds by Turkey. It was Assad's brutality in the first place that drew foreign fighters to Turkey to fight against his dictatorial ways.

Third, the US withdrawal doesn't resolve what will happen to Assad, or do anything to address the conditions that gave rise to ISIS and will still likely be there, but with a weakened, autocratic Syrian state. Without a negotiated peace, ISIS or successor is likely to reemerge.

Fourth, we have no idea what the follow-on counterterrorism plan is, whether terrorist groups in the region are focused on Syria or would threaten the US or our western allies. You can't just tweet that ISIS is defeated and assume that makes it so.

Fifth, the US withdrawal from Syria is a gift to Vladimir Putin. The Russian naval facility in Tartus, on the Mediterranean gives them access to the middle east. We know that keeping it was a priority for Putin, and it's unclear that post-Assad they would have been able to.

Sixth, reports that it's Erdogan's offensive against the Kurds in Syria that has triggered Trump's decision to withdraw are even more disturbing given that they come to light *the day after* Trump's former NSA admitted in a criminal proceeding he was a foreign agent for Turkey.

Finally, it's also clear Trump's own Administration had no idea the Syria withdrawal announcement was coming or how to prepare for it. They're a) lacking an explanation of the goals, b) abruptly cancelling pressers, c) withdrawing personnel from Syria w/in 24 hours, d) in chaos.

So before anyone offers to throw Trump a victory parade, let's figure out what he thinks he's accomplishing, what the likely consequences are, and what motivated him to do it. Luckily, come January, we have 235+ House members poised to force the Administration to answer.

Adding to this thread, since many of you argue that we should withdraw troops full stop.

I'm not arguing for keeping troops there. Syria doesn't disappear when US troops leave. & ISIS isn't defeated. A precipitous withdrawal doesn't deal with the security consequences to the US.