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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Here it is.

New Tax Policy Center analysis finds Senate bill raises taxes for

-- 9% of taxpayers in 2019

-- 12% of taxpayers in 2025

-- 50% of taxpayers in 2027

-- But in 2027, top 1% and 0.1% still get large tax cuts:

taxpolicycenter.org/sites/default/…
I should stress that the numbers for the top 1% and top 0.1% are averages.
More: According to the TPC analysis, after 2027, the vast majority of those making $900,000 a year and up get an average tax cut of $42,000:

taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/senate-…
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More from @ThePlumLineGS see all

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We are not in the midst of a conventional negotiation, in which each side is offering concessions in exchange for concessions from the other side.

Here's the basic asymmetry, as clearly as I can explain it:
1) If Democrats agree to what Trump wants, they will have made massive unilateral concessions (the wall) in exchange for Trump doing what *he himself* says he wants to do, i.e., reopening the government.
2) By contrast, if Trump agrees to what Dems want (border security + reopening govt), he will have given up *nothing whatsoever* in concessions.

All he'll be giving up is his ability to use govt shutdown & pain it's causing as leverage to get his way. That's not a concession.
Read 4 tweets
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As we wait for Trump to speak, here's a quick rundown of the ways in which his case for the wall has proven flimsy or fallen apart.

First, in Jan 2017, Trump ordered DHS to do a comprehensive study of the border. It has not been released, I'm told:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
Second, the claims that DHS has made about terrorism and the border have fallen apart. And experts have noted that if the administration had classified info that would support its case, it would have been declassified by now:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
Third, the briefing that the White House gave to members of Congress, ostensibly to *inform* them so they could make good policy choices, was full of falsehoods and absurdities. This leaves no doubt about the depths of bad faith here:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
Read 4 tweets
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Trump may declare a national security emergency to build his wall in part because of its "symbolic power for his core voters."

Yes, that is real:

washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
It is overwhelmingly obvious that at this point, the wall is nothing but a symbol, a political and even religious totem.

Among white evangelical Christians, the core of Trump's base, support for the wall has soared since he campaigned on it:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
“For white evangelicals who see the sun setting on white Christian dominance in the country, the wall is a powerful metaphor."

That's @robertpjones. He has researched these voters for years.

Trump has a real instinct for tapping into these wellsprings:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Why, I would be happy to explain how the GOP tax bill did not, in fact, "benefit everyone," and did take from the American people! Thank you so much for asking! To the thread-mobile!
To start, the tax bill DISPROPORTIONATELY, OVERWHELMINGLY benefitted the super-wealthiest--83% of the tax cuts went to the 1%. The top .1% (POINT 1%) received an average cut of $148,260. This is a bill that was sold as predominately helping the middle class, what did you get?
In fact, more than half of all Americans will not only NOT see ANY tax cut, they will ultimately see their taxes increase! [via Tax Policy Center, btw: taxpolicycenter.org/model-estimate…]
Read 13 tweets
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Appears corporate AMT provision probably raises >$300B, not $40B JCT estimated under duress Fri night. This means Rs have to take Senate bill to conference and can’t just have House pass it, unless they want to *really* piss off bus community. 1/5
I’m getting >$300B from fact that provision appears to repeal R&D credit, which costs ~$113B, and participation exemption, which costs $216B. See JCT estimates at jct.gov/publications.h… and jct.gov/publications.h…. 2/5
And corporate AMT provision does a lot more than this, so even $300B is probably low-balling. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
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This Ryan interview is a doozy. Here’s an abridged list of outright falsehoods and misleading statements: npr.org/2017/12/01/567… 1/6
Ryan says married couple w/ 2 kids currently owes no fed income tax if income <$12K, with threshold rising to $24K under bill. He shamelessly ignores personal exemptions, to which every TP is currently entitled and both bills repeal. Current threshold is *higher* at $28.9K. 2/6
Ryan says: “The analysis is very clear, this is an average tax cut for every taxpayer on average.” Nope. Here are JCT estimates of House bill. 1st shows many income groups pay more on average. 2nd shows many worse off even assuming workers get 25% of benefits of corp tax cuts 3/6
Read 7 tweets
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1. When I teach tax reform, I always say there are no lies; just versions of the truth. For example, when GOP leaders repeatedly claim that this a middle class tax cut -- even though there is no evidence to support it after 10 yrs -- it's not because they're lying...
2. ...but rather because they simply believe that workers will benefit more from the 900B tax cut than those who "score" the tax plans do. But...
3. ...when President Trump said yesterday about the plan, "It's going to cost me a fortune, this thing. Believe me, believe me. This is not good for me. I have very wealthy friends. This is not good for them." Well, this is just a lie.
Read 19 tweets
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1. We need to talk about the unspoken truth beneath the Republican Party's push to reform the U.S. tax code.
2. That unspoken truth ought to color deeply our understanding of the GOP, specifically that the party of limited government and fiscal conservatism is no such thing.
3. That truth is this: the Republican Party wants to add more than $1.5 trillion to the national debt. The number could swell to $2.2 trillion.
Read 44 tweets
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WOW. We knew the Senate Republican tax bill was bad but these graphs from the Institute for Taxation and Economic Policy (@iteptweets) are still shocking.

The bill RAISES taxes on low- and middle-income households while cutting them on high-income households.

1/
The top 1% gets a tax cut of $9,000 in 2027. At the same time that the poorest income groups get a tax hike of about $200. 2/
You won't believe this but it's true. The Senate GOP bill gives a bigger tax cut to FOREIGN INVESTORS than any group of U.S. taxpayers. In fact, the bottom 60% is basically paying for the tax cut for foreign investors.

America First? Country first? Make America Great Again?

3/
Read 9 tweets

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