So this seems like as good a moment as any for some basic thoughts/reminders about impeachment. (And why the impeachment conversation is much less pressing now than the tax conversation.) (1/12)
Impeachment isn’t a legal question. It’s a constitutional judgment. (2/12)
Those categories need a lot of unpacking, of course. But this bit is straightforward: a President can be validly removed even if he broke no law. (“High crimes & misdemeanors” isn’t a reference to the U.S. criminal code. It’s a term of constitutional art.) (3/12)
So suppose there were no law against colluding with a foreign enemy to impair US interests, or to influence domestic politics. (Suppose.) Still impeachable. Obviously. (4/12)
But as a realistic matter, lawbreaking matters, even though it’s not constitutionally necessary. Lawbreaking can give people something to hang their hats on. That is…(5/12)
… Lawbreaking creates a basis for saying/thinking “This isn’t just our view; it’s a fact about what POTUS did. And we’re not second-guessing an election; what disqualifies the POTUS is something the voters didn’t know / couldn’t have known.” (6/12)
So lawbreaking matters, realistically, even though an impeachment could validly proceed without it. (7/12)
But if we’re speaking realistically…(8/12)
… Impeachment requires a majority vote in the House and a 2/3 vote in the Senate. No President has ever been impeached when the House majority was of the same political party as the President. Ever. (9/12)
President Trump has about an 80% approval rating among self-identified Republicans. Rs in Congress answer to those voters. Seems far-fetched to imagine they’ll do what no majority party in Congress has ever done. (10/12)
That the chance of impeachment is super-low as long as Rs control the House doesn’t mean nobody should talk about impeachment. People talk about all sorts of unlikely things. But don’t kid yourself. (11/12)
So as a practical matter, impeachment is a much less pressing topic than lots of others right now. Like the tax bill, which is hugely consequential. Or the Alabama Senate election. Or several other things. (Did I mention the tax bill?) (12/12)(end)
