Bunch of people saying on Twitter that the explanation for the “insurance” text I cited in my story is bogus or meaningless or carrying their water. So I’m going to walk through why it makes sense and why it’s important. 1/x (get a script to read this) wsj.com/articles/in-fb…
Peter Strzok, the FBI agent, and Lisa Page, the FBI lawyer, were having an affair. They were texting about everything (sharply critical of Bernie Sanders, Chelsea Clinton, Eric Holder, esp Trump). Even the Russia probe. They even joked about potential code names for it. 2/x
She suggested Latitude because it sounded military but wasn’t specific enough to draw attention. He thought that was good, but then jokingly proposed “YUUUGE,” (Trump’s NY accent version of HUGE). But he noted he might save that one if the FBI ever opens a case on Trump. 3/x
A few days before the “insurance” text, he says: “OMG I CANNOT BELIEVE WE ARE SERIOUSLY LOOKING AT THESE ALLEGATIONS AND THE PERVASIVE CONNECTIONS.” then: “What the hell has happened to our country????” He appears flabbergasted by what he has seen. 4/x
So Page, Strzok & others meet in Dep. Dir Andrew McCabe’s office. (everyone agrees on that). People familiar with their account tell me that Page says HRC is likely to win and they can take their time on what could be a rather complicated investigation of Russian meddling. 5/x
This is a very sensitive counterintelligence probe -- most CI probes involve some of the FBI’s and US govt’s most closely held secrets/tactics/strategies/sources/methods -- so it would make sense to be methodical, think through things, not risk key assets. 6/x
(side note) Why they are texting about this case -- even elliptically -- on cellphones is kind of mind boggling, according to former agents and prosecutors. 7/x
About 630 a.m. on Aug 15, Strzok wrote: “I want to believe the path you threw out for consideration in Andy’s office—that there’s no way he gets elected—but I’m afraid we can’t take that risk. It’s like an insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you’re 40…” 8/x
Here, according to the people familiar with his account, he is saying: You are probably right. Hillary is going to win, and we can take our time. But he doesn’t believe they can take that risk. We need to be aggressive, he is saying, no matter who might win... 9/x
In fact, he is saying, we need to pursue this as if Trump might win because then people we are investigating might end up in his administration. Remember: he had just texted her IN ALL CAPS how mind-blowing this all was. 10/x
So the “insurance” policy means in a texty way that sometimes you get insurance in the unlikely event you might die. A small cost (insurance is less expensive the younger you are) is a good investment. This is how he views Trump/Russia/Clinton. 11/x
According to the people familiar with his account, he is literally saying an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. We have to proceed aggressively in the off-chance Trump succeeds so we can have answers by then, if possible. 12/x
Trump allies read this as evidence the FBI was cooking up a conspiracy to prevent Trump from winning. But we've seen no sign of that. Did FBI Director Jim Comey not get the memo? Comey has been savaged by DEMs for wrecking HRC’s chances with the last-minute letter to Congress! 
There is no evidence Strzok or Page or anyone else at FBI leaked anything before the election to hurt Trump. In fact, the Obama admin has been criticized for not saying more about Russia before nov 8. politico.com/story/2016/10/… 13/x
The FBI agent and lawyer did themselves no favors with their behavior. Strzok was heading two of the most consequential investigations in FBI history, and he texted like this and had an affair? And about the case (somewhat slyly)? Former agents cannot believe this. 14/x
The text themselves raise so many questions about impartiality that a loyal Bureau man to his core -- Mueller -- jettisoned Strzok from his team probably within minutes of learning about the texts. 15/x
As Stewart Baker, former general counsel at NSA, wrote on LAWFARE: “The texts say a lot, none of it good, about the FBI’s culture and Bob Mueller’s staffing choices. They say nothing about a grand plot by the Deep State.” lawfareblog.com/peter-strzoks-… 16/x
It is what it is. The explanation is probably unsatisfying to many who wish there was a conspiracy and to those who wish there was a more innocuous explanation. No water carrying here. Just the facts. Tips: pop an email to me and I will send you my signal: rawhidedown.com/the-author/#co…
