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Sam Lowe @SamuelMarcLowe
, 7 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Behind most Brexit claims lies an economic model, and a set of assumptions.

So when @Jacob_Rees_Mogg says that Brexit will reduce the cost of food, wine and clothes “by 20 per cent”, whose model, and assumptions, is he relying on?

express.co.uk/news/politics/…
The answer: Patrick Minford of Patrick Minford fame. He argues that post-Brexit, if the UK unilaterally drops all tariffs to zero, food prices would fall by about 20 per cent.

iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
In order to produce this figure, Minford makes the following assumptions:

That following Brexit:

-We will buy any given product at the lowest price available globally
-That distance does not have any impact on price
-That quality and safety does not have any impact on price
-That consumers instantly substitute any given type of product for a cheaper one, given the opportunity
-That advertising and branding doesn’t exist, and has no impact on the price people are willing to pay
In essence Minford is "attributing all the differences in producer prices between the EU and low-cost countries to EU trade barriers, ignoring the obvious differences in safety, quality, product mix etc”

blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2017/04/…
In English:

That once we Brexit and unilaterally drop tariffs to zero, instead of buying Champagne, UK consumers will buy the cheapest Chinese knockoff at Xinjiang prices.
Most everyone relies on models and assumptions, even @Jacob_Rees_Mogg. Some models and assumptions are more reasonable than others.
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I often find myself thinking about the claim that UK food prices will fall post-Brexit so long as the UK removes the existing EU tariffs on food imports (which can be quite high) either unilaterally or via new free trade agreements.

I'm sceptical, for a few reasons.
The first being that vast majority of our imported food comes from EU. Even if we unilaterally dropped tariffs on all imported food, we would still import a lot of food from the EU. EU food will be more expensive than now, if only because of new bureaucracy (ignoring tariffs).
Second, currency.

The IFS estimate that unilateral tariff removal could reduce household prices about 0.7–1.2%. This benefit has already been negated by a ~2% depreciation in sterling post-referendum.

ifs.org.uk/uploads/public…
Read 8 tweets
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Day 4 without a working boiler. I am starting to get cold.
Fair point.
Fixed! And I now have the number of a great gas engineer for any North Londoners in need. (Diagnosed and fixed it in 30 minutes compared to a 3 hour failed attempt by cowboys on NY eve).
Read 4 tweets
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Tariffs not biggest issue for British food exporters to EU, bigger issue is delays at the border and additional bureaucracy.

For example, milk for human consumption must enter EU via inspection post where 100% shipments subject to identity & doc checks; 50% physical inspection.
Because twitter, I’ve had a few “well that’s not a problem because we don’t export much milk” responses despite me saying it was just an example.

Here’s a product by product breakdown of checks and frequency UK products of animal origin would face if no deal.
The physical inspection rate can be reduced if the UK and EU reach an equivalence arrangement but this doesn’t remove need for document and identity checks nor for products to enter EU via a veterinary border inspection post. Anyway, it’s all in here: apha.defra.gov.uk/documents/bip/…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Jacob Rees-Mogg on ERG chickening our of publishing its grand #Brexit plan: “The truth is we reconsidered.”

The truth is you lot couldn’t organise a piss-up in a brewery. Much easier to criticise than to conceive workable ideas that don’t appear written in crayon, innit Jake?
Brexiters really are the proverbial dog that caught the car.
John McDonnell ERRRMERRRGEEERRRRD HE IS CALLING YOU DOGS
Read 3 tweets
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1. I cannot contain my loathing of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson and John Redwood et al. They are wreckers and liars manipulating the stupid and the easily led.

#Brexit thread.
2. When you've been in a political and economic union for forty years things get a bit complicated. There is layer upon layer of complexity and no one person understands it all and never will. It's massive and anyone claiming to understand it fully is lying or overconfident.
3. For instance, the aviation sector covers everything from landing slots to safety certification where often it is difficult to tell what is an EU competence and ans where the line of delineation is between the EU and the nation state.
Read 19 tweets
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1. They say the leave side lied in the #Brexit referendum. As it happens, everybody did. That's what politics is. Lying. It's a fight between you, me and the swamp. It's always a battle for the disengaged middle. This is why Jacob Rees-Mogg lies so brazenly.
2. The man is no idiot. The man knows his lies are transparent to anyone with half a clue. But he knows his target audience doesn't have any clue at all. The image he projects has an air of authority. It's about getting people to believe in him.
3. He certainly doesn't give a flying fuck about the people he is using. The disengaged middle are just a political resource to be used for as long as is convenient. No lie is too big so long has he gets his version of Brexit.
Read 25 tweets
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Another boring #Brexit thread.

1. People are right to observe that the EU does flex its own rules but very often when it does it is invoking emergency measures or articles inside a particular legal framework. That, though, cannot extend to #Brexit.
2. When the UK leaves it will become a third country. Standard third country treatment will apply. That new relationship could evolve to include further customs cooperation but it would have to be part of a formal agreement.
3. What the EU is not going to do is enter any agreement that compromises its own legal order. Any agreement allowing the free(ish) movement of goods would mean that any UK regulatory divergence would have to be supervised and mutually agreed.
Read 22 tweets
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THREAD:

1. So who do I mean when I refer to the "Brexit Blob"? There's the usual suspects. Redwood, Rees-Mogg, Paterson and the other nonentity backbenchers, and then there;s the Tufton Street sock puppet think tanks and then the ayatollahs of #Brexit.
2. These will be people like Lawson, Ruth Lea, Hartley Brewer, Brendan O'Neill, John Longwoth, Kate Hoey, Gisela Stuart Low Fact Chloe, John Mills and so on and so forth. The ones who aren't lying are stone stupid.
3. These are the people who colluded to ensure that novbody outside the Westminster bubble got a voice in the campaign. That is why The Leave Alliance has struggled to win any exposure. Partly thanks to Hannan's sabotage early on - aided by the Bruges Group.
Read 25 tweets
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So, @Jacob_Rees_Mogg has had a go at Sir John Major for being part of the European elite because of #Brexit. I think it is probably the time to tell a little story about JRM, how he acts and what people think of him. Are you sitting comfortably...?
Back in the day, I started out as a research assistant at Scottish @Conservatives Central Office. As you’d imagine, I’ve a lot of stories I could tell but, sadly for you, you’ll never hear them. However, JRM has provoked this with his comments about Sir John.
Back in 1997, @Jacob_Rees_Mogg was the Tory candidate for Central Fife. His passage into the seat was helped by the powers that be so that he could follow the time-honoured path of so many with the right connections of fighting some unwinnable seats before being given a safe one.
Read 19 tweets

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