Don't agree with this position. Concession and tolling our most important highways may be the only "nationally scalable" way to get our roads fixed.
That roads are public goods does not mean financing their construction from taxes is possible or even optimal.
That roads are public goods does not mean financing their construction from taxes is possible or even optimal.
Just to put some legs to this point, I did a rough estimate of what it will cost to properly reconstruct the most important highways in the country. I started out with this graphic from the good folks @sbmintelligence
cc: @StearsBusiness
cc: @StearsBusiness
I think the A1, A2, A3 and A4 highways can be considered as the most important roads in the country. However, I considered the E1 (Lagos - Ibadan Expressway) as an extension of the A1 given they meet at the Marina in Lagos. So think of the A1 as A1+E1.
Next thing - How much does the average span of asphalt road cost per kilometer? For this, I turned to @FMPWH with just about the only transparent cost information that they have published. The #SukukBond road construction data.
So I only looked at the road construction data and threw out all the data points that included bridges and only maintenance. This is a very rough estimate to use, but it fits our purpose here.
So the average cost per road in each geopolitical zone and nationally is as follows:
So the average cost per road in each geopolitical zone and nationally is as follows:
NC - ₦239 million / km
NE - ₦239 million / km
NW - ₦219 million / km
SE - ₦242 million / km
SS - ₦413 million / km
SW - ₦329 million / km
National -₦225 million / km
1 - Roads are bloody expensive.
2 - Roads in the SS are the most expensive (swampy terrain ??).
NE - ₦239 million / km
NW - ₦219 million / km
SE - ₦242 million / km
SS - ₦413 million / km
SW - ₦329 million / km
National -₦225 million / km
1 - Roads are bloody expensive.
2 - Roads in the SS are the most expensive (swampy terrain ??).
Now to check the distance of these major highways. We have google maps to thank for that:
A1 (+E1) = 1221 km
A2 = 1057 km
A3 = 1513 km
A4 = 1146 km
Very straightforward.
A1 (+E1) = 1221 km
A2 = 1057 km
A3 = 1513 km
A4 = 1146 km
Very straightforward.
So using the national average for road costs, the total cost (on average) of re-constructing these 4 important highways comes to ₦ 1,112 Bn.
That's 1.1 trillion Naira.
That's 1.1 trillion Naira.
Finally this is how much the FG has spent in TOTAL annual capital spending over the years:
As you can see, the cost of building only these 4 major highways is not trivial. Mr Fashola should stop the games and quickly concession out these highways to be re-constructed and tolled.
Then funding from the budget & the soon-to-be-introduced tax on PMS can fund other roads.
Then funding from the budget & the soon-to-be-introduced tax on PMS can fund other roads.
One more thing. We need to think about these highways as arteries spanning the country enabling commerce and human movement.
NOT as discrete connections between two towns (e.g. Lagos - Ibadan, Abuja - Kaduna, etc).
NOT as discrete connections between two towns (e.g. Lagos - Ibadan, Abuja - Kaduna, etc).
Once you take on that mindset, the scale and urgency of the problem is easily imagined. Coming to a decision about what needs to be done is not a great leap from there.
OK. That's all for now.
THE END.
OK. That's all for now.
THE END.
