1) Thread: Absent Iranian support, Bashar Assad would have likely fallen long ago. Why has Tehran endured/inflicted such staggering financial/human costs in/on Syria, and to what end? I explore this in @TheAtlantic theatlantic.com/international/…
2) Iranian officials repeatedly make clear their support for Assad isn't driven by the geopolitical/financial interests of the Iranian nation, nor the religious convictions of the Islamic Republic, but above all by "resistance" to Israel:
3) Opposition to Israel has been the most enduring pillar of Iran's revolutionary ideology since 1979. As Khamenei put it in 2012: “The Zionist regime is a cancerous tumor...We will support and help any nations, any groups fighting against [them]" washingtonpost.com/world/middle_e…
4) In avenging Israel via Syria, Tehran has been complicit in a conflict that has caused over 500K deaths (the UN has stopped counting), more than 5X the approximately 90K Palestinians killed since 1948. Displaced Syrians (12 million) now outnumber displaced Palestinians 2-1.
5) Since 2011 far more Palestinians (3,700) have died b/c of Assad than Israel. As @QZakarya, a Palestinian-Syrian CW victim put it, “If their way to return Palestinians back home is displacing millions of Syrians…I don't want to go back to Palestine" huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/syria-ga…
6) While a pretense for Iran's presence in Syria is to counter Sunni Jihadists, as journalists like @Raniaab have documented, Assad deliberately crushed moderate opposition and indulged radicals to engineer a no-win proposition: Assad or Jihadists nyti.ms/2GEeS5z 
7) The Iran-Assad alliance is a study in contradictions. While Iranian advocates for secularism are considered "enemies of God", Assad routinely says, “The most important thing is that Syria should be secular” uk.reuters.com/video/2015/11/…
8) While women in Iran who defy the mandatory hijab are subject to violence and imprisonment, Tehran subsidizes Hezbollah fighters who celebrate military victories in Damascus nightclubs with scantily-clad escorts
9) While nude statues in Europe are covered (theguardian.com/world/2016/jan…) to avoid offending the religious sensibilities of visiting Iranian officials, Assad’s forces deliberately used rape as a tool of repression against opponents washingtonpost.com/news/worldview…
10) While Khamenei implores Iranians to buy local products to boost economic self-sufficiency, Tehran’s largesse has helped subsidize Asmaa al-Assad’s wife shopping in London theguardian.com/world/2012/mar…
11) The Iran-Syria alliance is less an organic bond between nations and more a mutually exploitative love affair: Iran likes Syria for its body (which borders Israel and serves as Tehran’s way-station to Hezbollah), and Syria likes Iran for its money: ft.com/content/f5129c…
12) Like many Americans who prefer to do nation building at home, Tehran's expenditures in Syria have fueled domestic resentment at a time of growing economic frustration. "Leave Syria and think about us" has become a recurrent protest slogan:
13) While Iranians bear the financial costs of the Syria war, Tehran has outsourced the human costs: Iran’s 40K-strong Shia foreign legion-composed of Lebanese, Afghans, Iraqis, and Pakistanis-have endured 5X more casualties in Syria than Iranians carnegieendowment.org/2018/01/30/teh…
14) Afghan militias have paid the highest price. Most are undocumented- sometimes underage or illiterate-laborers in Iran, coerced/tricked into fighting in Syria. Lacking basic training/provisions, they're often used as "initial assault" cannon fodder bbc.com/news/world-mid…
15) Most egregiously Iran, the victim of heinous chemical weapons attacks during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, has unrepentantly provided Assad the means to deliver these same weapons, while absolving him of responsibility: middleeastmonitor.com/20180206-germa…
16) Iranian FM @jzarif has a standard 3-part response whenever Assad uses CW: 1) Saddam used CW against Iran 30 years ago (ie Iran is the victim, not Syrian children) 2) Vaguely condemn CW "by anyone" 3) Blame the Syrian opposition, backed by the US/Israel indianexpress.com/article/world/…
17) Just as all Iranians remember the lasting damage of Saddam's chemical weapons--provided to him by Europe--Syrians too will have similarly long memories--and health effects--of Iranian complicity sciencemag.org/news/2018/01/s…
18) With its expanding Shia militias, an assertive Russian partner, and a US president who aspires to withdraw from the region, Tehran feels vindicated in Syria. Its alleged military bases in Syria are equipped with armed drones capable of reaching Israel nytimes.com/2018/04/14/wor…
19) Though Friday night’s missile shower illustrated the US-Iran power asymmetry, the last 7 years have illustrated the US-Iran commitment asymmetry. Trump didn't care about Syria last week and won't care next week; Khamenei, age 78, is committed to Syria/against Israel for life
20) Despite Tehran's success keeping Assad afloat, in moments of honest reflection Khamenei seemingly contemplates whether it has all been a Pyrrhic victory: "The Zionist regime thrives in a safe haven...while Muslims are posed against one another."
