1. Thread: By withdrawing from the JCPOA Trump hastens the possibility of three disparate but similarly cataclysmic events: An Iranian war, an Iranian bomb, or the implosion of the Iranian regime nytimes.com/2018/05/08/wor…
2. Iran looms large over major US national security concerns including Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, cyber, energy security, terrorism, & obviously nuclear proliferation. As I wrote last year in @TheAtlantic the opportunities for direct conflict are numerous theatlantic.com/international/…
3. Rather than race toward a bomb, if Tehran resumes its nuclear activities it will likely do so deliberately--still under the guise of a civilian energy program--in order to split the international community. My colleague @MarkHibbsCEIP explains how: 
4. History has shown that Iran responds to pressure when it is encircled with a united international front. Unilateral U.S. pressure, however significant, is less impactful if Tehran feels it has escape doors in Europe, Russia, and Asia.
5. This scenario--Tehran resumes its nuclear program and a divided international community fails to react--will undermine Trump's desire to withdraw from the Middle East. Israel and Saudi Arabia will request a greater US regional presence to counter Iran's ambitions/retaliations
6. @JeffreyGoldberg's 2010 piece on whether Israel will bomb Iran's nuclear sites is newly relevant. While the Obama admin restrained Netanyahu, Trump has thus far indulged him and may well give him a yellow or green light to take military action theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
7. The impact of Trump's decision on Iran is unpredictable. The FT's sober/veteran Tehran correspondent @Najmeh_Tehran begins her latest dispatch with a jaw-dropping question: "Has the countdown to the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran begun?" ft.com/content/76180c…
8. “We have reached a dead-end,” says one businessman. "The problem is that if the Islamic Republic reforms itself, nothing would remain of it. And if it refuses to reform itself, it would die.” ft.com/content/76180c…
9. @ThomasErdbrink has a similar piece in the NYT: "The sense of crisis in Iran runs deep and wide. The economy is in free fall. The currency is plummeting...There is even talk of a military takeover." nytimes.com/2018/05/08/wor…
10. It's remarkable how 40,000 voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania can have such a potential impact on global geopolitics and the lives of 80 million Iranians
