See if you can! :) #foresight #futurist
Stationarily means, in this context, that rates don't change over time.
Under the model of stationarity, the odds per year of a violent revolution in the 1800s is identical to the odds this year.
In the next century, it's 0% per year.
In the next century, it's (so far) 0% per year.
Event rates, like polling outcomes over time, tend to follow linear relationships in logistic probability space.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DcNyqflWsAAoHO2.jpg)
Let's assume they average 40 years old.