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Gergely Polner @eurocrat
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
1) Theresa May’s proposal to apply the Northern Irish backstop to the whole UK will be rejected.
2) the backstop is cherrypicking parts of the single market - the EU accepted it because of the unique circumstances of NI. It is NOT acceptfor the whole UK
3) Moreover, there is no way a decision on Customs Union can go into the Withdrawal Agreement. It can only be agreed under future relationship - important point of procedure
4) To conclude, the Customs Union announcement may be a big step for UK and is indeed important for the future, but it doesn’t solve the Irish border problem.

Expect the EU to up the pressure on this.

ENDS
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More from @eurocrat see all

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#Brexit White Paper is finally out

Thread

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1. The full U.K. solution to the Irish border will be rejected by the EU
2. A ‘common rulebook for goods’ - the EU could do two things: A) reject as cherry-picking parts of the single market or B) start discussing how much of this is doable under an FTA.
There’s a good chance it would be B, but it will have to be tweaked significantly
Read 5 tweets

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Today UK govt published its unilateral 'commitments to Northern Ireland & its integral place in the UK'.
I'd read it not just as an effort to get unionists on board #WithdrawalAgmt but a nod towards post-Brexit governance.
Here’s an ‘essentials’ guide..
1/
 assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
It comes on the 2nd anniversary of the collapse of the NI Executive.
I really hope that isn’t a coincidence.
& if it isn't, it's a pointed reminder to those who claim to be concerned abt the representation of NI that they cd put more effort into getting Stormont up & running.
2/
The DUP came out quickly to reject it, underwhelmed & unconvinced.
Others will be too, but we cdn’t expect detail or substance on commitments at this stage.
(Besides, perhaps it's a duty of politicians in NI to bring forward proposals re: enhancing representation of NI..?)
3/
Read 12 tweets
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So seems point 1 is an extension/elucidation of what @DLidington told #r4today on Dec 14.

FWIW am told by Brussels sources this is now focus of UK 'ask' on reassurances/ clarifications. To set clear aspiration date for trade deal to avoid backstop /1

@DLidington Which as @DavidHenigUK quickly pointed out is, to put it mildly, ambitious. /2

@DLidington @DavidHenigUK This is not least because even if you think a 'quick and dirty' deal is doable on some aspects (you hear some discussion of this) the UK would STILL need to know what it wanted.

And as the Political Declaration makes painfully clear, it doesn't know. Or cannot agree rather. /3
Read 20 tweets
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Theresa May, Facing Hard Deadline, Struggles to Navigate Treacherous #Brexit Politics as U.K. ⁦@Conservatives⁩ gather with party torn over what to do about it. Our report via ⁦@WSJ⁩ wsj.com/articles/there…
Six months before #Brexit, nobody knows how it will happen. “We’re in a bit of a dangerous position,” said Nick Timothy, May's former chief of staff. “It feels like absolutely anything is possible, from staying in after all to departure without a deal..." wsj.com/articles/there…
A no-deal #Brexit deal means serious immediate economic disruption with ports clogging with trucks awaiting customs clearance. The UK is unprepared, but #EU countries too are uniformly unready for a no-deal exit, a recent “stress test” of the members found wsj.com/articles/there…
Read 8 tweets
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EU diplomats shrug at what they view as U.K. hysteria over Canada+ or Chequers #Brexit debate. The EU says the choice was never the UK’s alone 1
EU viewsChequers as a U.K. government position. Not an end in itself. Brussels aim: to navigate between Chequers and EU red lines.. 2
Accusation I often hear in Brussels is that U.K. Brexit negotiators are fine wordsmiths but that there’s often little meaning behind the words 3
Read 19 tweets
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Backstop par is intriguing and ambiguous
What UK means by backstop par will be crucial to unlocking a deal. Worth remembering that to get to March 2019 with an exit deal and transition, the backstop is key. On future, a political declaration will suffice.
Aspects of UK plan will be problematic for EU27: clash with integrity of single market (the one fundamental EU red line). Pars on ECJ/EU law will probably require more clarity too
Read 7 tweets
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This is gonna be long, but I think it's worth it. A well-regarded twitter poster, let’s call him Giorgio, has recently publish a thread stating among other things as follows. “The pathways to stopping or delaying Brexit are blocked.
But once the mandate is discharged, the pathways to UK rejoining, or being in a close association agreement with EU, within the single market and customs union, will be open, with no obstacles.”
This approach annoys me for two reasons, one because Giorgio seems to be attempting to cajole Remainers to put all activity on hold until we actually leave the #EU.
Read 17 tweets

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