Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #covid19ireland

Most recents (24)

5th day with sizeable case increase, the 1508 cases today is 149% last Tuesday and has us on a path close to NPHET Central 2 scenario by end September (details follow).
11,282 cases this week are 123% last weeks
206 hospital is 116% last Tues
33 ICU is 114% last Tues
Currently 2.2% cases hospital 12% of which go to ICU. Using those rates & taking as growth last 5 days cases,133% last week (10 days after opening indoors hospitality)
June 25 to end Sept;
7417 hospital
867 ICU
Slightly under NPHET C2 with its 1150 deaths /2
Reporting of deaths in the south is much delayed, but we can see whats happening north of the border to get some inclination. DoH reported 41 deaths since July 30th which would typically by 55 NISRA deaths (slower more accurate count) /3
Read 13 tweets
Todays 1522 #Covid19Ireland cases are 113% of last Mondays & added here as a green dot on the NPHET Precarious Exist scenarios. Taking cases from 10 days after indoors opened those 4 days are 130% of same days last week /1
217 hospital is 123% last Mon
176 new hospital cases this week are 99% last weeks
176 NHC are 1.9% of 9162 cases to Aug 3
34 ICU is 126% last Mon
20 ICU admissions this week is 133% of ICU admissions last week
20 ICU admissions is 13% of 135 new hospital cases to August 6th
Plugging in case increase at 130% previous week and current hospitalisation & ICU rate accumulates by end Sept
300k cases
5663 hospital
709 ICU
which lies between NPHET Central 1 & 2 scenario but closer to 2
Read 9 tweets
2 weeks ago today I was arrested by Gardai, kept in a small room for 5 hours with severely high temperatures, no windows open, no air conditioning, no fan.
I was interrogated about my campaign work, accused of hating religion, asked to disclose information about journalists.
I was mocked, asked if I could spell my address properly.
I was followed to toilet by gard whilst washing ink from fingerprints off my hands.
I was forced to give my DNA even when I said I DO NOT consent.
I was asked about #Holocaust #HolocaustDeniers
Asked to provide evidence.
#Irish police, state @GardaTraffic are trying to bring Incitement to hatred, harassment charges against me because I spoke out against #HolocaustDeniers living in my hometown #WestCork
Their leader is a convicted Holocaust Denier, they are #COVID19 deniers too.
Read 11 tweets

1,408 new cases confirmed.

152 in hospital. 26 in ICU.

@VirginMediaNews #COVID19ireland
Dr Tony Holohan: "2% of cases are being hospitalised."

This is significantly down on previous waves due to vaccination programme.
Ronan Glynn: "Vaccination is having a very positive impact on the risk profile of COVID-19 in Ireland."
Read 22 tweets
Todays #Covid19Ireland Precarious Exit plot confirming my senses yesterday that with the rate of case growth slowing we would return to NPHET worst case curve, a big improvement on last week. Todays 1126 cases, added as green dot, are in fact just 96% of last Sundays /1 Image
The older Cautious Reopening plot reveals on left just how badly Delta wrecked hopes of earlier escape from the pandemic. And today hospital cases has risen to what had been expected but moving in the wrong direction
123 Hospital is 135% last Sunday
22 ICU is same as last Sun /2 Image
New hospital cases remain linked to case increases when you allow for a 6 day lag & ICU admissions remain linked to the hospital cases with 3 more days lagged. But at a lower proportion than before, 2% rather than 5% /3
Read 9 tweets
Phenomenal article from @TheEconomist on aerosol transmission.

Once again @WHO & the medics have let us all down.

It was pressure from physicists that brought the true nature of COVID-19 transmission to the fore.


#ventilation #COVID19Irelandโ€ฆ
There was strong evidence to suggest that COVID-19 could be airborne, from as early as January 2020, when patterns of infection didn't match physical proximity.

Aerosol transmission could also explain / contribute to super-spreader events, but the medics weren't interested. ImageImage
The medics ignored this data. They assumed that COVID spread like the flu, and that the virus droplets would quickly fall on to surfaces.

@WHO even denied the possibility of aerosol transmission, claiming that it was "misinformation" #ironic

3/4 ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
1,017 new cases confirmed.

@VirginMediaNews #COVID19ireland
101 in hospital. 20 in ICU.
14-day incidence at highest since 24th of February. 5 day average at its highest the 2nd of February.
Read 4 tweets
Sigh - this was not how I hoped the #Covid19Ireland Cautious Reopening plot would end but the last 3 case dots tell a story thats sadly unmistakable - adding as the final red dots
1183 cases is 187% of last Friday
79 hospital, 158% last Friday
23 ICU, 153% last Friday
What happens next will be tracked on the Precarious Exit plot which has not improved since yesterday, indeed the 5306 cases this week being 151% of the previous week is. a lot worse, I'll show how much in the next 2 tweets /2
I've been tracking what percentage of cases end up in hospitals and what percentage of those go to ICU. As the force of infection increased these have got a lot worse, 2.5% cases hospitalised & almost 15% of those going to ICU when you account for lag effects. /3
Read 11 tweets

783 new cases confirmed.

73 in hospital. 20 in ICU.

#COVID19ireland @VirginMediaNews
Most new cases confirmed in a day since February 20th.
Tony Holohan: Throughout the pandemic we have been mindful of the disproportionate impact the public health measures have had on certain people in our society. Unfortunately, this remains the case...
Read 17 tweets

Cabinet approves legislation for indoor hospitality - Tรกnaiste Leo Varadkar.
Varadkar: People with immunity (vaccination and recovery from Covid) will be able to enter indoor hospitality venues.

Distinction between those who are vaccinated and unvaccinated for a short period of time - this is entirely a public health measure, he says.
"We're conscious of what we're seeing in other parts of Europe - Netherlands, Portugal, Catalonia - where we believe countries moved too quickly."
Read 14 tweets
#Covid19Ireland Cautious Reopening plot June 10th with added as red dots
398 cases, 86% last Thursday
70 in hospital, 83% last Thursday
27 in ICU, 90% last Thursday
All indicators below expected with lowest 7 day average since the 17 December turning point to wave 3 /1
45% of population now have partial protection of dose 1 vaccination, 22% have more substantial 'fully vaccinated' protection. These are quite short of where we need be in terms of risking opening of indoor hospitality as we are seeing from England
County data shows alarming situations in Limerick where infection are double those of the next worst hit counties and over 10 times that of those counties doing best /3
Read 4 tweets
#Covid19Ireland June 8th Cautious Reopening with lowest cases in a while (but possibly BH delay effect) , small rise in hospital (+8) & ICU (+1) since yesterday. Plotted as red dots
271 cases, 80% last Tuesday
Hospital 77, 87% last Tuesday
ICU 27, 79% last Tuesday
/1 Image
Hospital admissions for #Covid19 are now available again suggesting an accelerating if still slow decline recently - some protection for over 50s should be kicking in from here so if there is no large increase in cases number in hospital and number going into should fall /2 Image
The expectation is that cases will rise as a result of yesterdays opening in 8-10 days. With Paul Reid saying they are seeing a rapid fall over in over 55s cases with luck we will first see a further fall (which also means fewer to infect now) /3
Read 6 tweets
The irish government are systematically destroying ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช.
1. Treatments; you have provided no access or encouraged any treatments regarding #COVID19ireland. In fact you've ignored International regarding studies on several options.
2. Carehomes and Hospitals; You failed to protect the old and vulnerable. Most carehomes were abandoned. The majority of people whom died of #COVID19 caught it in a carehome or hospital! Think about that.
3. SME's and hospitality; government has targeted these business and used them consistently as scapegoats time and time again. The data showed these businesses were not either cause or high risk, but #msm portrayed them as such. The owners and families abandoned!
Read 8 tweets
467 #Covid19Ireland positive swabs today is 96% of last Thursday despite 21k tests. Positivity at 2.2% - looks quite likely now this weeks swabs will come in under last weeks so a reduction /1
Average of 421 pos swabs over last 3 days which is 96% of same days last week. Projects as a slow reduction which will be accelerated by vaccination
404 wk1
387 wk2
371 wk3
355 wk4 - June 3rd
341 wk5
326 wk6
313 wk7
300 wk8
This is a big deal as it looks likely from GP referrals that we will get to the end of week 5 of the 6 'Vulnerable Period Ahead' weeks below the case levels of March 31st rather than 1200+ cases above that level. There it gets increasingly hard for things to go badly wrong /3
Read 5 tweets
435 #Covid19Ireland positive swabs which is 99% of last Wednesdays - note the bank holidays might have artificially depressed that though. Perhaps not as 2.24% positivity on 19,406 tests, only 1000 less than last week
Average of 435 pos swabs over the last 3 days is 98% of same days last week. That fits recent pattern of static cases and projects as
388 wk1
379 wk2
371 wk3
363 wk4 - June 2nd
355 wk5
348 wk6
340 wk7
333 wk8
GP referral data from Tuesday will appear as Weds/Thurs swabs - thankfully not showing a bank holiday extra spike & in fact 'clinically likely Covid' is below every day last week which would suggest swabs in the low 400s. Loth, Galway & Wexford were the hotspots /3
Read 6 tweets
#Covid19Ireland swabs for last 3 now days out & summarised as 'could be worse'
Sun - 489, 106% last Sunday
Mon - 391, 103% last Monday
Today - 362, 92% last Tuesday
Positivity today is 2.6%
Average of those..
/1 Image
Thats 414 positive swabs on average over the last 3 days which is 100.4% same days last week. Which would project as
416 wk1
417 wk2
419 wk3
421 wk4 - 1st June
422 wk5
424 wk6
It's probable that's artificially low because of the bank holiday & tomorrows will also be artificially low. But still very welcome on day 29 of the 42 'Vulnerable Period Ahead' days that we remain below the level of cases that opened VPA rather than now being near 1,800 /3 Image
Read 6 tweets
Bad news on #Covid19Ireland swabs with a large jump to 658 today, 120% last Friday, close to 3% positivity on 22k tests which gets us back to rising cases but is also highest figure in a month /1
3 day average of swabs now 527, highest in over 3 weeks and 102% of same days last week. Projects as slow increase which if this is a one off high day & not a trend is manageable /2
540 wk1
554 wk2
567 wk3
581 wk4
595 wk5 - May 4
610 wk6
625 wk7
This is more in line which would have been expected from the higher GP referrals for Covid testing throughout the week. Perhaps this is the labs processing a lot of these yesterday - if so less worrying as explainable and reducing? Or big outbreak(s) not coming via that route /3
Read 5 tweets
๐Ÿšจ Government approves plans for gradual lifting of #COVID19Ireland restrictions.

The plan in emoji:
MAY 4:
๐Ÿšง Construction

MAY 10:
๐Ÿก Outdoor visits (2 households)
๐Ÿ‘ฅ Outdoor gatherings (15)
๐Ÿš™ Domestic travel
๐Ÿš‰ Bus/rail at 50% pax
๐Ÿ› Collection
๐Ÿ’‡๐Ÿผโ€โ™‚๏ธ Personal services
โ›ช๏ธ Churches (50)
๐ŸŽจ Museums/galleries
๐Ÿ Adult training
๐Ÿ’ Weddings (50 ceremony; 6 indoor afters; 15 outdoor)
MAY 17
๐Ÿ› Shops reopen

๐Ÿจ Hotels, B&Bs (indoor dining for residents only)

To be considered from JUNE 7, pending epidemiological situation:

๐Ÿก Indoor visits (1 household)
๐Ÿท Outdoor hospitality
๐Ÿ‹๏ธโ€โ™€๏ธ Gyms, pools
โšพ๏ธ Adult sports games, no fans
๐Ÿ’ 25 at wedding receptions
Read 5 tweets
Small same day last week increase in #Covid19Ireland positive swabs to 485, that's 106% last Thursday. Quite a large test quantity with low 2.4% positivity & 3 day average in comparison with last week still going down /1 Image
Average of 440 positive swabs over last 3 days is 94% of the same days last week, projects forward as slow reduction
415 wk1 - May 6th
392 wk2
370 wk3
349 wk4
330 wk5 - June 3rd
311 wk6
GP referrals for Monday & Tuesday were up a lot more than the positive swabs coming through yesterday & today from those referrals. Hayfever being one possibility alongside alertness around school outbreaks /3 Image
Read 6 tweets
Feared surge of #Covid19Ireland positive swabs from Mondays higher GP referrals hasn't materialised today, instead that 439 swabs are only 81% of last Weds. TBH I'm nervous a lab reported late but positivity of 2.1% on 20.5k tests suggests not /1 Image
3 day average of positive swabs at 405 is lowest in a week and 93% of same days last week which takes us back to slowly reducing pos swabs
376 wk1 - May 5th
350 wk2
326 wk3
303 wk4
282 wk5 - June 2nd
262 wk6
24 days into the 42 of the 'vulnerable period ahead' this low for a Wednesday number of swabs and the news of Pfizer delivering 191k vaccines provides hope - plot from last night, I'd expect to add about a 400 case dot tonight and not 600 I feared from Mondays GP data /3 Image
Read 5 tweets
#Covid19Ireland positive swab data for yesterday & today a concern but slightly better than end of last week
462 +swabs Sunday was 116% last Sunday
380 today is 104% last Monday
Were it not for vaccine rollout accelerating this would be a problem within a couple of months /1
Average of 451 pos swabs over last 3 days is 114% same days last week. That projects as
513 wk1 - May 3rd
583 wk2
663 wk3
754 wk4
857 wk5
974 wk6 - June 7th
1108 wk7
1259 wk8
1432 wk9
There was a small increase in testing across both days however as the north is demonstrating more tests does not mean more cases in any linear way - their testing increased 180% on previous week today but cases detected were 90%
Read 9 tweets
Unfortunately another day where #Covid19Ireland positive swabs are significantly up, todays 511 are 119% of last Saturdays and this makes 6 days in a row to show an increase on the same day last week. Taking us over 1000 a day by early June /1 Image
There have been 3215 positive swabs this week which is 116% of last week. Projecting the average swabs by day with that 116% increase has us over 1000 on 1st June
531 wk1 - 1st May
614 wk2
710 wk3
820 wk4
948 wk5
1096 wk6 - 1st June
1267 wk7
1465 wk8
1694 wk9
The 116% increase in swabs compared with last week is a significant disimprovement as that week was 95% of previous. A 116% week on week increase while not welcome would be manageable & would be overtaken by vaccination IF its on schedule in May. /3 Image
Read 4 tweets
๐Ÿฆ  #COVID19ireland
10 deaths; 617 cases

โช Thursdays:
15/04: 309
08/04: 400

๐Ÿ“ˆ 5d avg: 416
๐Ÿ“ˆ 7d avg: 417
(Last wk: 389)

๐Ÿ“† 14d incidence: 119/100k
(Last wk: 123)

๐Ÿฅ In hospital: 179
(Last wk: 184)

In ICU: 48
(Last wk: 51)

๐Ÿ’‰ 878,823
๐Ÿ’‰๐Ÿ’‰ 362,142
@VirginMediaNews ImageImage
@VirginMediaNews Of the 10 deaths reported today, 7 occured in April, 1 in March, 1 in February and 1 in January
Of the 617 cases reported today; half are under 33 and 70% are under 45.

236 of the cases are in Dublin, 84 in Donegal, 37 in Kildare, 34 in Tipperary, 30 in Offaly.
Read 4 tweets

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