Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #cyaz
Most recents (24)
The questions of transmissibility, severity, symptomology, etc. are academic and for the most part irrelevant.
This is a simple question of vaccine strain update. We do this all the time.
Boosting helps in short term, new shot next. New mAbs now.
This is a simple question of vaccine strain update. We do this all the time.
Boosting helps in short term, new shot next. New mAbs now.
The only reason we update vaccines is because of a new strain.
We don't wait for data on the severity of influenza B Yamagata or the transmissibility of this year's H3N2 to make an update, nor do we take 2+ shots of last year's flu vaccine to make up for strain mismatch.
We don't wait for data on the severity of influenza B Yamagata or the transmissibility of this year's H3N2 to make an update, nor do we take 2+ shots of last year's flu vaccine to make up for strain mismatch.
We didn't wait for hospitalization & intubation data for the recent H3N2 outbreak in the news.
We just update the vaccine quietly.
We don't dismiss any influenzas as "friendly" or "too nice to attack with a vaccine." We target the top 4 indiscriminately, regardless of severity.
We just update the vaccine quietly.
We don't dismiss any influenzas as "friendly" or "too nice to attack with a vaccine." We target the top 4 indiscriminately, regardless of severity.
"Unhelpful" to whom? Whom is he supposed to help? He was asked a question, he gave his answer. Was the media shopping for good news?
"Stock markets fell on the news" - Who gives a shit? How is this important?
"Stock markets fell on the news" - Who gives a shit? How is this important?
Point to me on this chart where the pain and suffering of shareholders is.
Two years of money raining on them crying over 2 days of the gravy train stopping at a station to refill.
Two years of money raining on them crying over 2 days of the gravy train stopping at a station to refill.
"But muh stock market missed out on two days of πΌ. The SEC should arrest Bancel for his words."
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. $TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: Boring on inventory/3rd party front. No sign of a huge EoQ delivery push.
TL;DR: Boring on inventory/3rd party front. No sign of a huge EoQ delivery push.
S/X/3 summary.
3rd party listings for all 3 are slowly increasing. Those that move are predominantly cheaper ones.
3rd party listings for all 3 are slowly increasing. Those that move are predominantly cheaper ones.
Looking at the Model 3 order tracker, no big increase in reporting in late Sept, which often happens at/after delivery.
I'm sticking w/ 600 total for Q3, 100 S/X & 500 3. JAIA will report on Tue (Mon night US).
I'm sticking w/ 600 total for Q3, 100 S/X & 500 3. JAIA will report on Tue (Mon night US).
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: EoQ rush seems muted. Backlog cleared.
TL;DR: EoQ rush seems muted. Backlog cleared.
S/X/3 summary.
Little going on w/ inventory S/X. I suspect most S/X delivery of this Q happened in Aug. S/3 3rd party listings continue to increase. Most used sales are at the low end of price ranges.
Little going on w/ inventory S/X. I suspect most S/X delivery of this Q happened in Aug. S/3 3rd party listings continue to increase. Most used sales are at the low end of price ranges.
Here are what we know wrt Q3.
1. No shipment of 3 since Nov., so backlog is 3 Qs worth.
2. Some S/X backlog, but that's prob. ~100.
3. Those who ordered in July have taken deliveries.
Here are the reported orders by mo & wk. Early on, sampling rate was ~20%.
1. No shipment of 3 since Nov., so backlog is 3 Qs worth.
2. Some S/X backlog, but that's prob. ~100.
3. Those who ordered in July have taken deliveries.
Here are the reported orders by mo & wk. Early on, sampling rate was ~20%.
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: EoQ rush continuing (though may not be as strong as last yr). Return of demo/loaners.
TL;DR: EoQ rush continuing (though may not be as strong as last yr). Return of demo/loaners.
S/X/3 summary.
Some demo/loaners were re-listed. Otherwise, rather quiet on S/X sales off inventory & 3rd party sales.
Some demo/loaners were re-listed. Otherwise, rather quiet on S/X sales off inventory & 3rd party sales.
These are not "new" by any means. Although you do see some "registered/unused" in Japan, those are considered "used", legally speaking.
Just liquidating demo/loaners.
They have many like this they re-list when sales are slow.
Just liquidating demo/loaners.
They have many like this they re-list when sales are slow.
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: EoQ delivery on-going. New S/X discounted.
TL;DR: EoQ delivery on-going. New S/X discounted.
S/X/3 summary.
No CPO listed. Many of the S/X inventories that were listed in mid-Aug. were either unlisted (sold or used for demo, etc.) or are slowly discounted. Along w/ the registration data, S/X sales for the Q may be mostly over.
No CPO listed. Many of the S/X inventories that were listed in mid-Aug. were either unlisted (sold or used for demo, etc.) or are slowly discounted. Along w/ the registration data, S/X sales for the Q may be mostly over.
Tesla Japan is busy clearing 3Qs-worth of backlog. Yet, things don't look as crazy/rushed as last Sept. when 3 was introduced. Not clear if they're now much better at logistics or there aren't that many to deliver. We'll know how many they imported in Aug in a couple of wks.
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: Q3 delivery has started.
TL;DR: Q3 delivery has started.
S/X/3 summary.
No major mov't on inventory or sales.
No major mov't on inventory or sales.
Q3 delivery of Model 3 has started this wk, the first since Feb. The leftover from Nov/Dec orders first, apparently. Some who ordered in July are getting delivery dates in late Sept, so apparently the entire backlog from Nov '19 ~ July '20 will be cleared.
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: EoQ delivery push about to begin.
TL;DR: EoQ delivery push about to begin.
S/X/3 summary.
Some movement in inventory, but not clear how many are actual sales. Same for 3rd party sales.
Some movement in inventory, but not clear how many are actual sales. Same for 3rd party sales.
Based on JPN forum threads, most seems to be getting ready for the delivery push.
Persistent rumor, allegedly coming from Tesla sales reps, is that another ship is arriving in mid-Sept. Not clear on volume. If true, we might see some spillover into Oct, as we saw last yr.
Persistent rumor, allegedly coming from Tesla sales reps, is that another ship is arriving in mid-Sept. Not clear on volume. If true, we might see some spillover into Oct, as we saw last yr.
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: First large shipment since Nov. has arrived.
TL;DR: First large shipment since Nov. has arrived.
S/X/3 summary.
Some new X gone. The first CPO 3. That makes 4 used 3 currently on sale out of ~900 they've sold in a year.
Some new X gone. The first CPO 3. That makes 4 used 3 currently on sale out of ~900 they've sold in a year.
Glovis Splender has arrive. JPN Tesla forum proprieter, who lives in Yokohama, has checked out the pier on 18th & reports seeing ~300 Model 3. He thinks more SR+ than LR/P, but hard to tell. I think they shipped more & ~1/3 each of each trim based on the tracker.
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: S/X inventory returns. More chatter on Q3 Model 3 deliveries.
TL;DR: S/X inventory returns. More chatter on Q3 Model 3 deliveries.
S/X/3 summary.
Not clear if they're on Glovis Splender or their might have been another small shipment, but many new S/X are now listed in inventory.
Not clear if they're on Glovis Splender or their might have been another small shipment, but many new S/X are now listed in inventory.
It appears most P/LR backlog will be cleared. Most, including those who ordered in June/July are getting delivery dates. Same for SR+ buyers who ordered in Q1 or earlier. Not yet clear when SR+ buyers who ordered in Q2/Q3 will get theirs. For 2020, each trim is ~1/3 of orders.
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: Tesla Japan essentially out of inventory. Q3 delivery to start in late Aug.
TL;DR: Tesla Japan essentially out of inventory. Q3 delivery to start in late Aug.
S/X/3 summry.
No new inventory listed, just a few CPOs.
No new inventory listed, just a few CPOs.
Glovis Splender will arrive in ~1wk & prep for delivery is in full swing. Even those who ordered in June/July are getting paperwork, so they seem to be intent on clearing the entire backlog in one shipment. Note that no Model 3 shipment since last yr, most likely since Nov.
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: Tesla Japan getting ready for Q3 deliveries.
TL;DR: Tesla Japan getting ready for Q3 deliveries.
First, S/X/3 summary.
No X listed, only 2 new S & 2 CPO S. 3 Model 3 listed on 3rd party sites, but no taker.
No X listed, only 2 new S & 2 CPO S. 3 Model 3 listed on 3rd party sites, but no taker.
Lots of posts on JPN Tesla forum on receiving VINs & paperwork. The few left-over from last yr are all getting one this Q & many who ordered in Q1. Even a couple who ordered one in July.
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: Q2 summary. Rumors on shipments to JPN.
TL;DR: Q2 summary. Rumors on shipments to JPN.
S/X/3 summary.
Q2 (really 1H) was the Q of liquidation again. Most sales were off inventory at discount. As such, very few left in inventory.
Q2 also saw the return of CPO, presumably w/ new battery & drive unit (8 yr warranty on those).
Q2 (really 1H) was the Q of liquidation again. Most sales were off inventory at discount. As such, very few left in inventory.
Q2 also saw the return of CPO, presumably w/ new battery & drive unit (8 yr warranty on those).
Left-over Model 3 backlog from Nov. '19 - Mar. '20 seem to be receiving paperwork in prep for delivery in late Aug/Sept. You can see that not only in JPN forum posts, but also on order tracker back-filling. Many report their orders at/around the time of delivery.
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: CPOs are all gone. Not much left if inventory.
A request: pls. check S/X CPOs in your region. Do they come w/ 8yr battery & powertrain warranty?
TL;DR: CPOs are all gone. Not much left if inventory.
A request: pls. check S/X CPOs in your region. Do they come w/ 8yr battery & powertrain warranty?
S/X/3 summary.
Not much going on at Tesla Japan. More X & a couple of 3s (already) available at 3rd party sites.
(I'll condense Q2 next wk).
Not much going on at Tesla Japan. More X & a couple of 3s (already) available at 3rd party sites.
(I'll condense Q2 next wk).
Rumor is that there will be 2 shipments this Q. One in mid-Aug, one in mid-Sept. Sept one is likely for Q4 sales. Shipments to JPN has never been big. I'd imagine 500 each should be enough for 2H '20. I'm expecting ~700 Model 3 & ~100 S/X for 2H.
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: things are boring as hell ATM.
A request: pls. check S/X CPOs in your region. Do they come w/ 8yr battery & powertrain warranty?
TL;DR: things are boring as hell ATM.
A request: pls. check S/X CPOs in your region. Do they come w/ 8yr battery & powertrain warranty?
S/X/3 summary.
Not much going on w/ most inv/CPO gone. 3rd party site sales slow as well. Those w/ 3 on order are starting to get paperwork mailed to them. Expecting late Aug/Sept delivery,
Not much going on w/ most inv/CPO gone. 3rd party site sales slow as well. Those w/ 3 on order are starting to get paperwork mailed to them. Expecting late Aug/Sept delivery,
The reason I'm asking you to check local CPOs is simple.
Since CPOs returned to Tesla Japan in early May after 7 mo absence, all are sold w/ 8 yr batt/motor warranty. Since most are 2015 S, they must have new packs. I want to know how wide-spread that is.
Since CPOs returned to Tesla Japan in early May after 7 mo absence, all are sold w/ 8 yr batt/motor warranty. Since most are 2015 S, they must have new packs. I want to know how wide-spread that is.
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: Most cars, both new & CPO, are gone from Tesla Japan site. Used market remain tepid. Update on Model 3 order tracker.
TL;DR: Most cars, both new & CPO, are gone from Tesla Japan site. Used market remain tepid. Update on Model 3 order tracker.
S/X/3 summary.
Only 5 cars are currently listed. Many of the unlisted are demo/loaners that won't count as new. Most likely, they unlisted display cars as well.
Only 5 cars are currently listed. Many of the unlisted are demo/loaners that won't count as new. Most likely, they unlisted display cars as well.
To recap, they sold up to 40 new cars in Apr/May. ~90 new cars were unlisted in Q2. My guess is that they did liquidate some old demo/loaners & registered some new ones to replace them. They've done that before.
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
TL;DR: CPO liquidation is nearly over. No serious attempt to sell new cars. Not much inventory left.
TL;DR: CPO liquidation is nearly over. No serious attempt to sell new cars. Not much inventory left.
S/X/Y summary.
Most CPOs are gone as their list prices continue to drop. 3rd party used sales are dead, though prices haven't come down much yet.
Many new/demo/display pulled & discounting has stopped. Seems to have given up selling them &/or inventory sufficiently depleted.
Most CPOs are gone as their list prices continue to drop. 3rd party used sales are dead, though prices haven't come down much yet.
Many new/demo/display pulled & discounting has stopped. Seems to have given up selling them &/or inventory sufficiently depleted.
Import data say no Tesla imported in May. Only ~30 YTD. Sold <40 in Apr-May after some discounting. I'm expecting ~60 for Q2. Probably only 20~40 new ones left in inventory. Simply not much happening in Q2 beyond selling CPOs. AFAIK, no news on any shipment in June.
#FraudWatch day 416
#BABYcharts is resurrecting a #DumDum classic, so Iβm bringing back a classic of my own. π₯
π₯΄π€‘ π€‘π₯΄
#BABYcharts is resurrecting a #DumDum classic, so Iβm bringing back a classic of my own. π₯
π₯΄π€‘ π€‘π₯΄
#FraudWatch day 417
#BABYcharts doing his best to suck up to Larry the Fossi guy today. What happened to βQ1 will be 150k minimumβ #DumDums? π’
π₯΄π€‘ π€‘π₯΄
#BABYcharts doing his best to suck up to Larry the Fossi guy today. What happened to βQ1 will be 150k minimumβ #DumDums? π’
π₯΄π€‘ π€‘π₯΄
#FraudWatch day 418
#BABYcharts with another βItβs all Elonβs faultβ #DumDum classic.
Watching the #DumDums spike the ball hard on the interaction with LAX Airport and Elon was epic when they replied they found the shipment. π
π₯΄π€‘ π€‘π₯΄
#BABYcharts with another βItβs all Elonβs faultβ #DumDum classic.
Watching the #DumDums spike the ball hard on the interaction with LAX Airport and Elon was epic when they replied they found the shipment. π
π₯΄π€‘ π€‘π₯΄
Preliminary MoF export data for Aug. are out.
Battery export from Kinki region to US is down 28% MoM. Still bit high for this year, but down 23% relative to last year's monthly ave. Typically, 90+% is Li-ion.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
Battery export from Kinki region to US is down 28% MoM. Still bit high for this year, but down 23% relative to last year's monthly ave. Typically, 90+% is Li-ion.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
Because of the news that Toyota will be using 18650 in China, here's the same data for China. Note the Y-axis.
It doesn't look like that much of July/Aug. production went to China.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
It doesn't look like that much of July/Aug. production went to China.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
So my tin-foil hat theory on big jump in July Li-ion production is still alive.
Final MoF data (by battery type) to be out on 26. Prelim. METI data for Aug. on 30th.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
Final MoF data (by battery type) to be out on 26. Prelim. METI data for Aug. on 30th.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
A note on Toyota using Pana cylindrical cells in China.
Levin/Corolla plug-ins reportedly have 50km+ EV range, similar to Prius Prime/PHV (8.8 kWh, EPA: 40km, JC08: 68km).
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
global.toyota/en/newsroom/coβ¦
Levin/Corolla plug-ins reportedly have 50km+ EV range, similar to Prius Prime/PHV (8.8 kWh, EPA: 40km, JC08: 68km).
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
global.toyota/en/newsroom/coβ¦
Assuming 10 kWh/car, 50k car is 0.5 GWh. Suminoe should have >8 GWh capacity, so 1/4 of capacity per Q. Given the decline in S/X sales, Toyota order will keep Suminoe at full capacity for ~2 mo.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
Given that Toyota sells 150~200K of regular Levin/Corolla hybrids per yr in China, 50k is likely for per yr. If so, that's ~6% of Suminoe capacity per yr. Not enough to off-set 40%+ decline in S/X sales IMO.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
FYI, METI's final auto Li-ion batt. production/sales/inventory data for July should come out later tonight (US time).
Based on prelim. METI data & MoF export data, I expect the prod/sales #s to be very high, ~last yr's level.
But why?
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
Based on prelim. METI data & MoF export data, I expect the prod/sales #s to be very high, ~last yr's level.
But why?
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
Is Tesla making more S/X this Q than Q1/Q2?
If not, why would Tesla buy so many 18650 cells?
Any reasonable (or unreasonable) explanation?
I got a tin-foil hat theory.
More on this in ~12 hrs.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
If not, why would Tesla buy so many 18650 cells?
Any reasonable (or unreasonable) explanation?
I got a tin-foil hat theory.
More on this in ~12 hrs.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
Ooops. Make is 36 hrs. Data release is Friday, not Thursday. Sorry!πββοΈ
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
A JPN biz weekly is reporting that Pana CEO Tsuga was at GF1 in June (for the 3rd time this yr). According to the article, he apparently was there to demand price HIKE on batteries.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
premium.toyokeizai.net/articles/-/212β¦
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
premium.toyokeizai.net/articles/-/212β¦
Lower level negotiations, including through JB, seems to have failed, thus the top level face-to-face mtg. Tsuga also says they solved batt. shortage long ago. Unfortunately, the rest are behind paywall.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
The magazine is a decent one, not some obscure one. This is where NYT pieces by Neal Boudette are translated & published, for example. I'd say it's a notch below Nikkei, but on per w/ Nikkan Kogyo, etc.
A big change at Pana USA.
Mototsugu Sato, #2 at Pana behind Tsuga, is now the CEO of Pana USA. He was assigned to fix its Tesla biz, along w/ (then) Pana USA CEO Tom Gebhardt & Pana Auto CEO Yuki Kusumi in April.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
Mototsugu Sato, #2 at Pana behind Tsuga, is now the CEO of Pana USA. He was assigned to fix its Tesla biz, along w/ (then) Pana USA CEO Tom Gebhardt & Pana Auto CEO Yuki Kusumi in April.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
This sounds very sudden for a company like Pana. They did a lot of personnel changes in March as usual (end of fiscal yr), so a change after just 3 month is rather abrupt.
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
Also, Pana corporate & US sites are both still listing Gebhardt as CEO.
panasonic.com/global/corporaβ¦
panasonic.com/us/corporate/pβ¦
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
panasonic.com/global/corporaβ¦
panasonic.com/us/corporate/pβ¦
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
Interesting.
Panasonic Auto battery sales by Q:
2018
Q2: οΏ₯87.4B
Q3: οΏ₯106.8B
Q4: οΏ₯118.3B
2019
Q1: οΏ₯110.9B
Q2: οΏ₯109.2B
Automotive Capital Investment by Q:
2018
Q2: οΏ₯21.1B
Q3: οΏ₯25.4B
Q4: οΏ₯24.4B
2019
Q1: οΏ₯37.9B
Q2: οΏ₯20.7B
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
Panasonic Auto battery sales by Q:
2018
Q2: οΏ₯87.4B
Q3: οΏ₯106.8B
Q4: οΏ₯118.3B
2019
Q1: οΏ₯110.9B
Q2: οΏ₯109.2B
Automotive Capital Investment by Q:
2018
Q2: οΏ₯21.1B
Q3: οΏ₯25.4B
Q4: οΏ₯24.4B
2019
Q1: οΏ₯37.9B
Q2: οΏ₯20.7B
$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #γγΉγ© #γ’γγ«3
Nice to be able to finally see how battery biz is doing, thanks to the recent re-org. Until now, auto battery biz was reported w/ energy devices, etc.
