Thread by @KawasakiKR11

FYI, METI's final auto Li-ion batt. production/sales/inventory data for July should come out later tonight (US time).

Based on prelim. METI data & MoF export data, I expect the prod/sales #s to be very high, ~last yr's level.

But why?

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Is Tesla making more S/X this Q than Q1/Q2?

If not, why would Tesla buy so many 18650 cells?

Any reasonable (or unreasonable) explanation?

I got a tin-foil hat theory.

More on this in ~12 hrs.

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Ooops. Make is 36 hrs. Data release is Friday, not Thursday. Sorry!🙇‍♂️

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METI's July data are out. First, the numbers (before tin-foil hat).

As expected, auto Li-ion production is up 54% MoM, 9% YoY. By far the highest prod. fig this yr. Sales are up 148% MoM, 10% YoY. Inventory is up slightly.

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Same story for "units" (the figs above are for capacity (Ah)).

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Battery cost.

It has come down to <$250, despite JPY appreciating slightly since May.

Usual disclaimers apply: this includes non-18650s, some of which are more expensive.

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I estimate ~70% of "auto" figures are 18650 for S/X, so why would Pana be making so many 18650 cells & Tesla buying them?

Let's get "reasonable" explanations out of the way first, before going full tin-foil hat.

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Is Model S/X sales/prod up this Q?

Not from what I've seen. Many who watch Fremont more carefully than I do told me S/X production is flat to slightly down since Q1/Q2.

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Remember that METI data, especially production figs, are very good at predicting S/X production.

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https://twitter.com/KawasakiKR11/status/1118372939555065857

Is Pana holding Tesla to the terms of their contract re: purchase obligations?

Possible, but why now? After 6 mo of very low purchase.

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Switching to 2170?

A rumor in Apr. was that Pana wanted to convert some lines at Suminoe to 2170. Maybe stockpiling 18650 before doing so. But why? No indication S/X will be using 2170 anytime soon.

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Stationary storage?

We haven't heard anything & last Q was ~0.4GWh. GF1 should have more than enough capacity, even if Tesla makes 100K Model 3 this Q (7GWh/Q to start the Q, per Elon).

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Any or a combination of these are certainly possible.

But I'd like present my tin-foil hat theory (that a few of you already guessed).

"Stealth battery recall"

Shanghai Tesla fire was late April. Timing fits.

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Since then, Tesla seems to have been sending out OTA updates to reduce the capacity/charging rate of older cars (85, but some others).

@zomgapocalypse & others have been extensively documenting the TMC posts on this issue.

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Just search for #TeslaRangeIssues.

(#Teslabatteryissues & #TeslaFireIssues are also useful).

I suspect Pana restarted all of the idled lines in July to get back to full capacity. Pana won't do that unless Tesla really asked them to.

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Just look at that huge increase after being so low for 6 month.

That's the production rate for 8~10k/mo.

Last big change (down in Jan) accompanied a big drop in production.

Something is up.

What's your theory?

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p.s.

The name of tin-foil hat squirrel is Sally (cc: @brodieferguson). She lives in the panel gap & the real brain power behind the MCU. She is responsible for the toilet paper shortage @ GF1 & sunflower seeds in Teslas, but NOT the stinky A/Cs.

https://twitter.com/KawasakiKR11/status/1039583875494756352

As others have pointed out, Toyota will be using the same cells in China. I've seen only a tiny uptick in the export data (from Kinki to China) in July.

I'll keep you posted on how that changes.

https://twitter.com/NAR/status/1172245228587233283

More color to this, as I finally got to the original JPN Nikkei article.

-50K is cars, not cells.

-Will be used in Levin/Corolla PHEVs. Both are currently available in regular hybrids. No info on battery capacity thus far, AFAIK.

O.K. Toyota did show Corolla PHEV last yr at Beijing Motor Show. Said 50 km EV range back then, which is less than 68 km for Prius PHEV/Prime, which has 8.8 kWh battery. So something similar or less most likely.

If same, 8.8 kWh x 50k = 440 MWh or ~5K Model S/X equivalent.

Not trivial, but Suminoe should have ~8 GWh capacity. Enough to make up for decline in S/X sale for ~2 mo, I suspect.

No info on over what time period (a few mo? a yr?).