Thread by @KawasakiKR11

A note on Toyota using Pana cylindrical cells in China.

Levin/Corolla plug-ins reportedly have 50km+ EV range, similar to Prius Prime/PHV (8.8 kWh, EPA: 40km, JC08: 68km).

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global.toyota/en/newsroom/co…

Assuming 10 kWh/car, 50k car is 0.5 GWh. Suminoe should have >8 GWh capacity, so 1/4 of capacity per Q. Given the decline in S/X sales, Toyota order will keep Suminoe at full capacity for ~2 mo.

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Given that Toyota sells 150~200K of regular Levin/Corolla hybrids per yr in China, 50k is likely for per yr. If so, that's ~6% of Suminoe capacity per yr. Not enough to off-set 40%+ decline in S/X sales IMO.

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Two more things to add.

1. New Levin/Corolla came out in May(?). No idea when PHV versions became available or are delivered. When did they start making them? Or have they? If anyone know when, pls. let me know.

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1. No sign of increased Li-ion shipment from Kinki to China as of July in MoF export data. Also, Kinki -> China Li-ion export in July was < 5 mil unit vs 75 mil units for Kinki -> US. Aug. data will be available in late Sept.

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Export figures. July export to US was up accordingly, while no big change was seen for export to China.

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In terms of how many cells Toyota deal represent, my rough estimate is: Assuming 18650 (~3.5Ah x 3.6~3.7V) & 8~10kWh per car, roughly 600-800 per car, so 30-40 mil units total for 50k cars.

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