Thread by @Usherwood

Another #2yrsArticle50 panel, on UK-EU future relations

.@CSBarnard24 opens by noting that any future trading relationship depends on settling WA and its issue

Barnard: Backstop will only disappear if comprehensive FTA and customs arrangement. Canada-type deal still needs backstop.

No other magic solution exists

Barnard: little-noticed part of Cox's negotiation was EU commitment to expedited negotiations on free trade in goods

Barnard: much commitment to energy in pursuing future negotiations

Ivan Rogers: "I might be least surprised person in the UK about all this"

Rogers: Brexit is a complex process, a de-accession. In some ways, more complex than accession, as that has known end target. UK doesn't know where it's diverging to right now

Rogers: multi-stage process. In first couple of years, probably only a basic FTA, with aspirations to do more. Again, Q of divergence

Rogers: equilibrium state can be reached by mid-2020s. Much of the surprise about it all is because of lack of internalisation of situation

Our final panellist @HenryNewman: easy to pick holes, but deal is a good one

Newman: WA guarantees a baseline and a stand-still transition, which is often forgotten in UK debate

Newman: A lot of misunderstanding between UK and EU27 over long-term

Newman: Brexit means EU can't claim to represent 'Europe' any more

Newman: UK will find itself in some outer tier of European cooperation, with institutionalisation. Probably not a customs union, as not sustainable in UK

Now to Q&A

@CSBarnard24 #EP19 will be major stumbling block to further extension

Rogers: no-deal is distinct risk now and under-appreciated in UK right now

[sorry - distracted by a journalist calling]

Rogers: UK needs to change how it talks with partners if it's to get past Brexit issue

Newman: only two kinds of people know what's happening - goods and liars.

Seems a good point to wrap up our #2yrsArticle50 coverage.

Thanks for following today and there's a huge pile more work (inc. our latest report, released today) at ukandeu.ac.uk

@UKandEU