Thread by @Usherwood

A thread on how the Art.50 talks might move on:

1/

So we now have some sense of where next sides are on all the major issues: Phase 1, transition and the New Relationship. Sure, it's patchy but we know considerable more than we di

2/

Rather than break things down in huge detail, let's take a more practical approach and think what needs to be done and when

3/

Central task is still to have a deal in place for 29 March 2019. That means a text, ideally by October, maybe Nov at a push. But what must go in it?

4/

Practically, transition must be in there, to govern what happens as UK leaves.

Politically, EU has insisted that Phase 1 issues are also resolved here.

5/

Future Relationship only needs some language about desire to work towards it, not detail, so I consider it largely expendable if/when other stuff gets bogged down.

6/

(note there's a trade-off of losing this from Art.50 deal, namely that it'll slow down transition, making Dec 2020 target end-date virtually impossible)

7/

Future Rel is thus a bit of a diversion, even if HMG has been correct to say it links to Phase 1 resolution, for talk of recent weeks has diverted political attention from Phase 1

8/

Phase 1 issues abound. Central is Irish dimension: despite disliking Option C, UK hasn't advanced detailed models for A or B and risks being backed into a corner by its Jt Rpt commitments

9/

(remember Jt Rpt matters on pacta sunt servanda basis, and failure to honour will have reputational issues for UK when discussing FTAs w third states, quite beyond immediate impact on UK-EI rels)

10/

Likewise, UK finding that EP isn't giving any ground on citizens' rights: again here, rash language on no diminution of rights post-Brexit is coming back to haunt UK in negotiations

11/

Core difficulty here is that option to push these points into transition doesn't look available: EU has linked latter to former, so there must be some accord by October

12/

March #EUCO will be central: failure to agree transition (where differences are actually more manageable) will be driven by lack of clarity on Phase 1

13/

That would push things into summer and there will almost no scope for any delay then: already by July it'll be much clearer if this is all going to happen

14/

Important point to remember: both sides are really fighting to get to a deal. UK is being more realistic about available choices; EU is leaving door open to further evolution of position

15/

Talk on cherry-picking doesn't help: final deal will be a hodge-podge, especially as services element rolls on (now w added CFP linkage), so focus must be on what's politically viable

16/

Both sides have red lines, both of which boil down to 'what's going to fly with domestic audiences': EU needs to reassure against contagion, UK that Brexit does, in fact, mean Brexit [sic]

17/

We're not at an impasse yet. UK has still got flexibility from its lack of precision, so most likely gambit wld be to retrofit a deal w language to effect that "this was what we planned all along"

18/

EU now reaching point where has to acknowledge that 'off-the-shelf' models have more flexibility that they've said, and that whatever deal is 'essentially' like CETA (or whatever)

19/

So rhetorical space exists, but will have to be underpinned by substance. And this is the main problem

20/

If we are to get to congress at/around March #EUCO, then A &/or B models for Irish dimension have to be tabled. That has to be central lock to it all.

21/

Sadly, citizens' rights comes second in this: EUCO might take view that EP is biddable, if presented w choice of current package or no deal

22/

(that's dubious given proximity of #EP19 and current unhappiness about Selmayr BTW)

23/

However, current UK rhetoric still lacks indication of any of this happening

24/

In sum, Art.50 isn't at impasse yet, but could be soon.

/end (and h/t @Sime0nStylites for suggesting this thread)