Thread by @Usherwood

Let's consider where #EUCO is at right now on extension:

1/

Yes, there are some (FR especially) then aren't keen on giving more time at all

But several (IE, NL, DE, etc.) that are very much focused on avoiding a no-deal, so extension is an essential first step (given where UK is right now)

2/

Hard to see that French ambivalence outweighs pressing interest of others, so likely to be a push to offer extension of some kind.

Thus Q has to be what kind of extension

3/

Short extension would keep up pressure on UK to make choices, but minimal belief that May can change her situation in next few weeks (recall UK needs to decide by 11/4 whether to do groundwork for #EP19), so Tusk's idea of MV3 on Monday likely to stick

4/

However, working assumption has to be MV3 fails, so what then?

Given tight timeline next week, EUCO might set out path now to longer extension (year-end?)

5/

That would need to include several points:
- conditions under which long extension is offered (i.e. no MV3 success + some kind of No.10 plan);
- reminder that WA approval can be earlier than new end-date, so May can take that back;
- deadline for UK to accept this

6/

Probably also would need to be accompanied by resolution not to offer any further extension except under exceptional circumstances, plus resolve not to re-open WA

7/

However, much of this will hang on how May's presents to EUCO today: will need to make a much more positive impression than on previous outings, as she had never achieved more than showing she's on track with Art.50 negotiations

8/

After yesterday, concern will be that this is Salzburg Mk2.

Only factor that balances that out is Q about whether Parliament is going to come running to rescue of process, but that will only be evident on Monday, so maybe more incentive to wait until then to make choices

9/

Overall, still not clear that EUCO can make a decision today on anything, which just by itself reflects badly on UK's management of process

/end