Thread by @Usherwood

Let's best-case scenario this:
- TM & JC meet tomorrow and agree a revised Pol Dec
- submit to EUCO on Friday, on same day that MV4 passes
- timeline for WAIB to complete by 22/5, with no major delays in HoC or HoL

Any spot problems yet?

1/

If nothing else, requires EU to accept an extension from 12/4 to 22/5 on promise of good behaviour by Parliament/Gvt, with big risk if any further time is needed that all the #EP19 issues kick back in, with no fallback position

2/

And that's best-case. Hard to see immediate common ground with Corbyn, and robust support for MV4 (esp if CON ruptures). That opens up opportunity for new motion of confidence.

3/

And WAIB is going to have a very difficult ride: ERG/DUP will fight hard rearguard action, plus Lords has no gvt majority, so loads of scope for problems, not least because Bill will likely contain much consequential substance that Lords will want to scrutinise

4/

So, it's a punt at best. At worst, it's an effort to blame LAB/EU for no-deal

/end