🚨🌍 Global Carbon Budget 2022, out now!🌍🚨
It provides the latest update on how we humans have tampered with Earth's remarkable system of #carbon stocks and flows.
So what are the take-homes from our latest update?
@gcarbonproject @PFriedling
It's a story of persistent high global #CO2 emissions, but with some hints (and some hope!) that *total* human #emissions are levelling off.
(Although with considerable uncertainty in the land use change emissions).
But did anyone mention that we need to get that red line 👆 to hit zero to meet the commitments made in #Paris?
👇
The pandemic led to a sharp decline in #fossil CO2 #emissions, but an almost equally sharp rebound in 2021 and a further 1% rise in 2022. Hence 2022 is a new *record year* for fossil CO2 emissions.
... Not the first time that global events have all-too-briefly pierced the trend.
There are nuggets of good news on national scales. In 2022, #fossil CO2 #emissions reduced in #China and the #EU.
... but those reductions were counteracted by increased emissions from #India, the #US and elsewhere.
Globally, #emissions from #coal and #oil grew in 2021 and 2022, whereas emissions from #gas fell slightly after their 2021 rebound.
Lurking behind those global numbers are some pretty spectacular increases in #emissions from #coal in #India (+5% from '21 to '22) and the #EU (+6.7%).
In the #EU, reduced #gas (-10%) emissions were countered by growth in #coal emissions (+6.7%) between '21 & '22.
No prizes for guessing why ... 🇺🇦
A related increase in emissions per unit energy added to the increased emissions caused by the post-pandemic economic rebound.
The latest changes in fossil CO2 #emissions are superimposed on vastly different baseline rates of emissions and inequitable emissions per capita across countries.
e.g. #US per capita emissions are falling, yet still 3x the global mean, and >2x the mean in the #EU.
Some good news. (Maybe.)
There are promising signs of a decline in global #land use change #emissions.
Although these estimates come with the highest uncertainty of any component of the global carbon budget.
National #emissions estimates for #land use change are an exciting new feature of this year's budget.
#Indonesia and #Brazil have contributed ~45% of the global emissions (past decade).
Land use change emissions declined steadily in Brazil since ~2005.
The plots above all show *net* land use change #emissions; the balance of emissions from #deforestation and landscape degradation, and sinks via re/afforestation and wood harvest.
Over the past decade, the sinks counterbalanced ~half of deforestation/degradation emissions.
#Land use change #emissions have contributed ~10% of the total #CO2 emissions in recent years.
However, land use change continues to be a historically significant source of CO2 to the atmosphere (~30% of the total).
What is the fate of all this #CO2 that we've chucked into the atmosphere?
A quirk of our planet's system, which we should all be thankful for, is that only ~half of human emissions remain in the atmosphere (so far).
The #land and #oceans dampen our impact on atmospheric #CO2 by ~53%
Over the past decade, land took up ~29% of human emissions, and the oceans ~26%.
The land #sink (to land which has escaped use by humans) continues to rise in response #CO2 fertilisation (CO2 being plant food, and all).
Removals through enhanced vegetation growth outweigh #emissions from land use change.
Worth noting, however, that the effect of #climate change, caused by historical emissions, has been to suppress the lank sink (the "red zones" 👇).
Some places are neutral, or net sources - due to the pressures that #climate change brings (e.g. drought, fire...)
The #ocean sinks have also grown as the #CO2 concentration gradient between the #atmosphere and ocean waters has sharpened.
The absorption of emitted #CO2 by the oceans brings problems like ocean acidification, but it prevents even higher concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere.
The net balance of all these #CO2 #emissions and #sinks?
An added ~19 billion tonnes of CO2 in the #atmosphere during the past decade, with ~40 billion tonnes emitted by humans and ~22 billion tonnes removed by the #land and #ocean sinks (past decade).
And so, the relentless growth of #atmospheric #CO2 continues.
The key driver of climate change.
... And the main reason that many regions are already facing a rising risk of #heatwaves, #droughts, #fires and #floods (to name just a few!). 👇
Building a global picture of the #carbon budget takes a huge investment of time from diverse research communities - hundreds of contributions.
Together, we keep track of this planet's carbon pulse.
@gcarbonproject @PFriedling @clequere @Peters_Glen @robbie_andrew @pepcanadell
@JudithHauck @LuijkxIngrid @ciais_philippe @ilitat @LiuzhuLiu @GuidovanderWerf @becci_wright @soenke_zaehle
@UEAResearch @TyndallCentre @ueaenv
With special thanks to @robbie_andrew for putting an impressive set of extra figures!
Always thank your funders!! ...🤦♂️
A huge thanks to @NERCscience for supporting my contribution to this year's global carbon budget 🙏
@UKRI_News
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