In a thought-provoking op-ed @nytimes, @davidrkadler argues that centrists, not extremists, are most hostile to democracy: nytimes.com/interactive/20…. Although the analyses on which the op-ed is based are interesting, I do not think that they warrant Adler’s main claim. #Thread
1. Employing WVS & EVS data, Adler recodes left/right self-placement (10points scale) into 5 categories: far left, center left, center, center right and far right. He shows that those who position themselves in the center are more hostile to democracy. 
2. I tried to replicate his analysis regarding “satisfaction with democracy” with the most recent wave of the ESS and I get very similar results.
3. The problem with Adler’s op-ed is not the empirical analyses, but the inferences drawn from it: his findings do not prove that moderates are more dissatisfied than far left/right citizens.
4. The reason is that the left/right axis does not capture far left and right attitudes versus moderate attitudes very well. The center category in Adler’s analysis is a very broad category, consisting of both radicals and moderates.
5. An analysis of ESS data shows, for instance, that about 43% of those who vote for radical right parties place themselves in the center. (Only 38% of them position themselves on the far right!)
6. Moreover, of those respondents who have the most negative attitude towards immigrants on a 4points scale (who think that immigrants of another ethnic group should not be allowed in their country), a majority of 48% positions themselves in the center.
7. On the other hand, the far right category contains many moderates. About 70% of those who position themselves at the far right side of the left/right axis vote for a mainstream party.
8. Moreover, only 18% of respondents in this category believe that immigrants of another ethnic group should be kept out of the country.
9. To sum up: (1) not all who position themselves in the center are moderates (the center category is ideologically almost just as diverse as society in its entirety); (2) many of those who position themselves at the far right of the left/right spectrum are rather moderate.
10. So what if we look at the relationship between satisfaction with democracy and those with radical positions on issues relevant to the far left and right, and actually voting for such parties?
11. Those who are highly negative about immigration (the core issue of the far right) are also far more often dissatisfied with democracy.
12. Those who are strongly in favor of or against income redistribution (the core issue of the far left) are far more often dissatisfied with democracy.
13. Those who vote for far left or far right parties are far more often dissatisfied with democracy than those who vote for mainstream parties.
14. To sum up: Adler presents some interesting findings, but we cannot conclude that centrists/moderates are more hostile to democracy. His study only shows that the classic left/right axis is a bad measure of how ideologically moderate/radical someone is.
15. (This in itself is an important finding. Too many scholars (including me) have employed the classic left/right axis as a measure of ideological radicalism or extremism…)
16. Conclusion: If we look at specific issues or actual voting behavior it becomes clear that radicals and extremists, not moderates, are the most hostile to democracy…
For those who read Dutch, more here: stukroodvlees.nl/staan-mensen-i…
