NE02, final. Bacon 51, Eastman 42
A good result for Republicans, though not a huge surprise in a lean Rep. district. Still, this could have been a top race and it doesn't look like one.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
A good result for Republicans, though not a huge surprise in a lean Rep. district. Still, this could have been a top race and it doesn't look like one.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
As an aside, I believe this is the first race where Republicans have beaten @Redistrict expectations in 12 days, and they only did it by a net-2 points
Washington 8, final. Schrier (D) 46, Rossi (R) 45
America's greatest district posts our second closest result yet, trailing only Kentucky 6
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
America's greatest district posts our second closest result yet, trailing only Kentucky 6
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Iowa 3, final. Axne (D) 44, Young (R, inc) 43
It's considered a tossup and, yes, it's close. But this is not a good result for the GOP.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
It's considered a tossup and, yes, it's close. But this is not a good result for the GOP.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Ohio 1, final. Chabot (R, inc) 50, Pureval (D) 41
A good result for the Republicans in a fairly conservative district where the Dems have a strong nominee.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
A good result for the Republicans in a fairly conservative district where the Dems have a strong nominee.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Virginia 2, final. Taylor (R, inc) 49, Luria (D) 41
This is probably our best result for the Republicans in weeks. Didn't expect Taylor to look so strong here, given the investigation into his campaign
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This is probably our best result for the Republicans in weeks. Didn't expect Taylor to look so strong here, given the investigation into his campaign
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Arizona 2, final. Kirkpatrick (D) 50, Marquez Peterson (R) 39
This seat was already thought to lean Democratic, though there have been signs this race might be more competitive than it ought to be. Not much sign of Marquez Peterson strength in this poll
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This seat was already thought to lean Democratic, though there have been signs this race might be more competitive than it ought to be. Not much sign of Marquez Peterson strength in this poll
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Minnesota 2, probably final. Craig (D) 51, Lewis (R, inc) 39
This seat was already thought to lean Democratic, but there's no good news for Jason Lewis here.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This seat was already thought to lean Democratic, but there's no good news for Jason Lewis here.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Michigan 8, final. Bishop (R, inc) 47, Slotkin (D) 44
A decent result for the GOP in general, but outright great given some articles suggesting this might have slipped out of their grasp
This continues a run of good GOP results in Trump CDs post-Kavanaugh
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
A decent result for the GOP in general, but outright great given some articles suggesting this might have slipped out of their grasp
This continues a run of good GOP results in Trump CDs post-Kavanaugh
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
North Carolina 9, final. Harris (R) 47, McCready (D) 42
Again, feels like part of a pattern of GOP consolidating a bit in Trump/Romney-type conservative districts nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Again, feels like part of a pattern of GOP consolidating a bit in Trump/Romney-type conservative districts nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Texas 31, final. Carter (R) 53, Hegar (D) 38
Hegar, despite being a national phenom, still has extremely low name-ID (but highly positive among those who know her) so some upside for her
Cruz lead here consistent with about Cruz+4 or 5 statewide
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Hegar, despite being a national phenom, still has extremely low name-ID (but highly positive among those who know her) so some upside for her
Cruz lead here consistent with about Cruz+4 or 5 statewide
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Michigan 11, final. Stevens (D) 45, Epstein (R) 37
More undecided voters than any we've conducted so far. Both candidates name ID < 50% in this open race in a fairly expensive market.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
More undecided voters than any we've conducted so far. Both candidates name ID < 50% in this open race in a fairly expensive market.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
North Carolina 13, final. Budd 47 (R, inc), Manning 41
Budd's under 50, but Democratic path in this GOP-leaning district is a little ambiguous with POTUS approval, genballot and Budd favs all looking decent
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Budd's under 50, but Democratic path in this GOP-leaning district is a little ambiguous with POTUS approval, genballot and Budd favs all looking decent
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
PA-16, final. Kelly (R, inc) 50, DiNicola 42
Not a real surprise in a lean/likely GOP race. Kind of something for everyone to be pleased with: yes, Dems showing strength in a tough CD; no, probably not a Dem breakthrough nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Not a real surprise in a lean/likely GOP race. Kind of something for everyone to be pleased with: yes, Dems showing strength in a tough CD; no, probably not a Dem breakthrough nytimes.com/interactive/20…
NY-1, final. Zeldin (R, inc) 49, Gershon (D) 41
Like the other lean/likely R races in Trump Country we're wrapping up, this isn't a great result really for either side. GOP would like to be farther ahead here; Dems not exactly positioned to win, either. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Like the other lean/likely R races in Trump Country we're wrapping up, this isn't a great result really for either side. GOP would like to be farther ahead here; Dems not exactly positioned to win, either. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
IL-14, final. Hultgren (R, inc) 47, Underwood (D) 43
This may be a dangerous race for GOP.
Hultgren has lower name ID than any other R inc we've polled. Trump underwater. Big D yr in IL. Lower-tier race + expensive market = Rs pbly can't nuke Underwood nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This may be a dangerous race for GOP.
Hultgren has lower name ID than any other R inc we've polled. Trump underwater. Big D yr in IL. Lower-tier race + expensive market = Rs pbly can't nuke Underwood nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Nevada Senate, final: Heller (R, inc) 47, Rosen 45 (D)
A challenge/opportunity for Dems with Hispanic voters.
Just 45% of reg. Hispanics say they're "almost certain to vote" v. 63% of white voters. 18% say not very likely to vote, v. 4% of whites.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
A challenge/opportunity for Dems with Hispanic voters.
Just 45% of reg. Hispanics say they're "almost certain to vote" v. 63% of white voters. 18% say not very likely to vote, v. 4% of whites.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Texas Senate, final: Cruz 51, Beto 43
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Tennessee Senate, final: Blackburn 54, Bredesen 40
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Minnesota 8, final. Stauber 49, Radinovich 34
Is it real? Maybe a little. nytimes.com/2018/10/15/ups…
Is it real? Maybe a little. nytimes.com/2018/10/15/ups…
Pennsylvania 1, final. Wallace 50 (D), Fitzpatrick 43 (R, inc)
Some things went a little off on this poll, which I'll discuss in another tweet, but I don't think it materially moved the result nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Some things went a little off on this poll, which I'll discuss in another tweet, but I don't think it materially moved the result nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Arizona 6, final. Schweikert (R, inc) 50, Malik (D) 36
@Redistrict lobbied for this district for weeks, and then the day we announced it emailed to say he expected R+14..... -_- nytimes.com/interactive/20…
@Redistrict lobbied for this district for weeks, and then the day we announced it emailed to say he expected R+14..... -_- nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Virginia 10, probably final. Wexton (D) 48, Comstock 41 (R, inc)
Basically what everyone else except the NRCC has, I guess
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Basically what everyone else except the NRCC has, I guess
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Colorado 6, final: Crow 47 (D), Coffman 38 (R, inc)
We had Crow+10 in September. Widely considered a "lean Dem" race at this point, and this certainly won't dispel that notion nytimes.com/interactive/20…
We had Crow+10 in September. Widely considered a "lean Dem" race at this point, and this certainly won't dispel that notion nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Kansas 3, final: Davids 48 (D), Yoder 39 (R, inc)
We had this as Davids+8 back in September, which I thought was a little hard to believe. Like CO06, easy to see why this is considered "lean Dem" and a feature of various GOP triage candidate lists
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
We had this as Davids+8 back in September, which I thought was a little hard to believe. Like CO06, easy to see why this is considered "lean Dem" and a feature of various GOP triage candidate lists
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
New Jersey 11, probably final: Sherrill 49, Webber 38
This is a pretty fantastic Dem turnout, but Sherrill is still up 5 in the 2014 electorate. Her fav rating is fantastic, and she's running far ahead of the generic ballot / Trump disapproval
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This is a pretty fantastic Dem turnout, but Sherrill is still up 5 in the 2014 electorate. Her fav rating is fantastic, and she's running far ahead of the generic ballot / Trump disapproval
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Maine 2, final: Golden 41 (D), Poliquin 41 (R, inc)
Voters approve of Susan Collins by 34 points and approve of her Kavanaugh vote by 17 points
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Voters approve of Susan Collins by 34 points and approve of her Kavanaugh vote by 17 points
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
West Virginia 3, final: Miller 46 (R), Ojeda (D) 41
Pretty astonishing for a Democrat to be so competitive here. Wouldn't rule out an Ojeda win. Not at all.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Pretty astonishing for a Democrat to be so competitive here. Wouldn't rule out an Ojeda win. Not at all.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Texas 23, final: Hurd 53 (R, inc), Ortiz-Jones 38 (D)
A lot of Democratic-leaning undecided voters, but Hurd has a 58/26 fav/unfav rating and he might just hold this traditional battleground district by a wide margin.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
A lot of Democratic-leaning undecided voters, but Hurd has a 58/26 fav/unfav rating and he might just hold this traditional battleground district by a wide margin.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Pennsylvania 8, final. Cartwright 52 (D, inc), Chrin 40 (R)
Voters narrowly approve of the president and want a GOP Congress, but it looks like Cartwright is probably safe
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Voters narrowly approve of the president and want a GOP Congress, but it looks like Cartwright is probably safe
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Florida 15, final. Spano 43 (R), Carlson 43 (D)
Spano+1 in the exact margin. A tough result for the GOP in a lean Republican open race in an expensive market.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Spano+1 in the exact margin. A tough result for the GOP in a lean Republican open race in an expensive market.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Arizona Senate, final. McSally 48, Sinema 46
A tough result for Sinema but it's been a tough couple of weeks of news for her, too. Add the fact that it's our first time here and it's a tough result to place in context
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
A tough result for Sinema but it's been a tough couple of weeks of news for her, too. Add the fact that it's our first time here and it's a tough result to place in context
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Washington 3, probably final: Herrera Beutler 48 (R, inc), Long 41 (D)
This race leans Republican, so not a big surprise. A lot of Trump disapprovers, young voters and Democrats among the undecided
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This race leans Republican, so not a big surprise. A lot of Trump disapprovers, young voters and Democrats among the undecided
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Florida 27, final: Shalala 44 (D), Salazar 37 (R)
Shalala's favorability rating better than I thought it would be tbh
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Shalala's favorability rating better than I thought it would be tbh
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Illinois 12, final. Bost 48 (R, inc), Kelly 39
A lot of undecided young, Dem, St.L burb voters, but this doesn't seem like a top-tier opportunity for Democrats anymore
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
A lot of undecided young, Dem, St.L burb voters, but this doesn't seem like a top-tier opportunity for Democrats anymore
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Virginia 2, final: Taylor 45 (R, inc) , Luria 42 (D)
This will be an interesting test early on election night.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This will be an interesting test early on election night.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Virginia 5, final: Cockburn 46 (D), Riggleman 45 (R)
This open race is our first Dem lead in a 'lean Rep' district in a month.
Might be hard for Dems to really get over the top here, with positive Trump approval and GOP lead on generic ballot nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This open race is our first Dem lead in a 'lean Rep' district in a month.
Might be hard for Dems to really get over the top here, with positive Trump approval and GOP lead on generic ballot nytimes.com/interactive/20…
New Mexico 2, final: Herrell 44.5 (R), Torres Small 44.5 (D)
Our closest result yet
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Our closest result yet
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
California 39, final. Cisneros 48 (D), Kim 47 (R)
Turnout an outsized factor in this in this rapidly changing district nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Turnout an outsized factor in this in this rapidly changing district nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Florida 26, final. Mucarsel-Powell 45 (D), Curbelo 44 (R, inc)
Will be a big race to watch early on Election Night nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Will be a big race to watch early on Election Night nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Ohio 1, final. Chabot 50 (R, inc), Pureval 41 (D)
Undecided vote leans Dem here as well, but Chabot's at 50 and Pureval could use a stronger turnout than we have here
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Undecided vote leans Dem here as well, but Chabot's at 50 and Pureval could use a stronger turnout than we have here
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
California 49, final. Levin 53 (D), Harkey 39 (R)
Levin up 69-21 among NPA voters
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Levin up 69-21 among NPA voters
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
New Jersey 3, final: MacArthur (R, inc) 45, Kim (D) 44
Another tossup looks like a tossup nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Another tossup looks like a tossup nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Illinois 13, final. Davis 46 (R, inc), Londrigan 41 (D)
This race "leans Rep," but this strikes me as one of the more vulnerable of the lean Rep. races we've polled
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This race "leans Rep," but this strikes me as one of the more vulnerable of the lean Rep. races we've polled
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Texas 7, final. Culberson 46 (R, inc), Fletcher 45 (D)
Beto up 4, down from 7 in our prior poll of this district; not a great number for him
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Beto up 4, down from 7 in our prior poll of this district; not a great number for him
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Correction: Beto up 2, down from 7 in our prior poll of this district; still not a great number for him
California 10, final: Harder 47 (D), Denham 45 (R, inc)
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Pennsylvania 10, final: Perry 45 (R, inc), Scott 43 (D)
This district is generally thought to "lean Republican"
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This district is generally thought to "lean Republican"
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Illinois 6, final: Casten 46 (D), Roskam 44 (R, inc)
A tough road for Roskam: Trump approval -12, D+4 on generic ballot in this once reliably Republican district
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
A tough road for Roskam: Trump approval -12, D+4 on generic ballot in this once reliably Republican district
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Utah 4, final: McAdams 45 (D), Love 45 (R, inc)
10 of 13 tossup races polled (including Siena NY19/22) so far are <1 pt margins
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
10 of 13 tossup races polled (including Siena NY19/22) so far are <1 pt margins
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Iowa 3, final: Axne 43 (D), Young 41 (R, inc)
With Trump underwater and Dems favored on the generic ballot as well, this seat looks like part of the Dem path of least resistance to a majority
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
With Trump underwater and Dems favored on the generic ballot as well, this seat looks like part of the Dem path of least resistance to a majority
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
New York 11, final: Donovan 44 (R, inc), Rose 40 (D)
This is generally considered to be a "lean GOP" race, and Trump approval/Donovan favs/generic ballot all support it. But it's definitely a race
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This is generally considered to be a "lean GOP" race, and Trump approval/Donovan favs/generic ballot all support it. But it's definitely a race
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Florida Senate, final: Nelson 48 (D, inc), Scott 44 (R)
We don't survey in heavily polled races too often, so somewhat reassuring to end at Nelson+3.5 v. FiveThirtyEight average of Nelson+3.3
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
We don't survey in heavily polled races too often, so somewhat reassuring to end at Nelson+3.5 v. FiveThirtyEight average of Nelson+3.3
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Florida Governor, final: Gillum 48 (D), DeSantis 43 (R)
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
California 25, final: Knight 48 (R, inc), Hill 44 (D)
Probably best result we've had for the GOP in a a tossup district in a while
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Probably best result we've had for the GOP in a a tossup district in a while
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
New York 27, final: Collins 44 (R, inc), McMurray 40 (D)
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Pennsylvania 1, final: Fitzpatrick 47 (R, inc), Wallace 46 (D)
Another tossup looking like a tossup
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Another tossup looking like a tossup
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
North Carolina 9, final: Harris 45 (R), McCready 44 (D)
Another super close tossup.
Will be a big early test of the GOP's 'bend but don't break' path to at least keeping the House close later in the night. They can't afford to lose this Trump+12 district nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Another super close tossup.
Will be a big early test of the GOP's 'bend but don't break' path to at least keeping the House close later in the night. They can't afford to lose this Trump+12 district nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Kansas 2, final: Davis 41 (D), Watkins 37 (R), Standley 7 (L)
The rare weird result that still makes some strange amount of sense.
It's our best Dem result in a tossup during the final wave, even though I believe it's the district that voted most for Trump
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
The rare weird result that still makes some strange amount of sense.
It's our best Dem result in a tossup during the final wave, even though I believe it's the district that voted most for Trump
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
New Jersey 7, final: Malinowski 47 (D), Lance 39 (R, inc)
Probably the best Democratic showing of the final stretch. Malinowksi still up by 4 with '14 turnout. A lot of GOP defection.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Probably the best Democratic showing of the final stretch. Malinowksi still up by 4 with '14 turnout. A lot of GOP defection.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Iowa 1, final. Finkenauer 46 (D), Blum 39 (R, inc)
A tighter race than September, but still seems "lean Dem"
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
A tighter race than September, but still seems "lean Dem"
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
California 45, final. Porter 48 (D), Walters 46 (R)
Porter by 1 in the unrounded margin. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Porter by 1 in the unrounded margin. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
New York 19, final. Delgado 43 (D), Faso 42 (R, inc)
Not a district the GOP can afford to give away. 7% support various minor candidates.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Not a district the GOP can afford to give away. 7% support various minor candidates.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Virginia 7, final. Brat 46 (R, inc), Spanberger 44 (D)
Undecided voters here back Democratic control of congress by a 2 to 1 margin, Brat with just a 16/36 fav among the group nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Undecided voters here back Democratic control of congress by a 2 to 1 margin, Brat with just a 16/36 fav among the group nytimes.com/interactive/20…
New York 22, final. Tenney 46 (R, inc), Brindisi 45 (D)
Tenney might be the weakest incumbent we've polled. But Trump+13 approval and R+10 generic ballot might just be enough to her over the top nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Tenney might be the weakest incumbent we've polled. But Trump+13 approval and R+10 generic ballot might just be enough to her over the top nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Iowa 4, final. King 47 (R, inc), Scholten 42
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Illinois 14, final. Underwood 49 (D), Hultgren 43 (R, inc)
Underwood by 5 in the more exact margin. A stunner, if true.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Underwood by 5 in the more exact margin. A stunner, if true.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
California 48, final. Rouda 46 (D), Rohrabacher 45 (R, inc)
Rouda by 2 in the exact margin. It could take weeks to resolve
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Rouda by 2 in the exact margin. It could take weeks to resolve
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Georgia 6, final. McBath 46 (D), Handel 44 (R, inc)
This would be something. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This would be something. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Michigan 8, final. Slotkin 49 (D), Bisthop 43 (R, inc)
Dem path to a majority starts getting pretty easy if the Dems have even a few clear leads in the "tossups," and given the conduct of the campaigns this might be one
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Dem path to a majority starts getting pretty easy if the Dems have even a few clear leads in the "tossups," and given the conduct of the campaigns this might be one
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Texas 32, final. Allred 46 (D), Sessions 42 (R, inc)
A 5 point shift from our prior poll. On average, Dems picked up 3.3 points in these final polls v. our initial one
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
A 5 point shift from our prior poll. On average, Dems picked up 3.3 points in these final polls v. our initial one
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Washington 8, final. Schrier 48 (D), Rossi 45 (R)
Given the D+3 primary result, maybe something at the edge of just being lean Dem at this point
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Given the D+3 primary result, maybe something at the edge of just being lean Dem at this point
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Kentucky 6, final. Barr 44 (R, inc), McGrath 44 (D).
The polls close in Kentucky 6 at 6pm on Tuesday. We'll see you on election night.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
The polls close in Kentucky 6 at 6pm on Tuesday. We'll see you on election night.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
this thread is over
