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FiveThirtyEight @FiveThirtyEight
, 9 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Here's a better way to think about May’s jobs numbers --> 53eig.ht/2AHDlAJ
Each month’s job growth figure is revised twice, first in the next jobs report and finally in the report after that. Entire years of monthly data are also adjusted up or down during an annual benchmarking process, based on records of unemployment benefits. 53eig.ht/2AHDlAJ
In the most recent report, the number for March was revised for the second time, to 155,000 — *52,000 more* than was initially reported. 53eig.ht/2AHDlAJ
So that job growth number?

Take it with +/- 120,000 grains of salt.

53eig.ht/2AHDlAJ
The unemployment rate is a useful metric for economists, but it doesn’t quite capture how we tend to think about employment and joblessness in our day-to-day lives. 53eig.ht/2AHDlAJ
There are two versions of the unemployment rate — one that’s seasonally adjusted (*that’s the one you read about) and one that’s not.

And if you’re not looking at change over time, the non-adjusted number can be more true-to-life. For May, it was 3.6%.

53eig.ht/2AHDlAJ
In May, this was the employment status of every 500 people included in the BLS report:

53eig.ht/2AHDlAJ
That unemployment rate in the headlines?

It doesn’t really take into account anyone who has quit job-hunting for a while or is working less than they want to.

53eig.ht/2AHDlAJ
A little secret of the economics trade: jobs data is the statistical equivalent of a best guess. 53eig.ht/2nGa727
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