,
51 tweets,
13 min read
Read on Twitter
Agree with this assessment of the macro outlook. Stupidity could well lead to the end of this expansion
Leading risk to current expansion:
Steel sector $SLX down 12% since tariff war started. Market’s verdict
Trade war: We lose under even the ‘best’ scenario
Exiting trade agreements:
There are overwhelming reasons to believe protectionist policies are a lose-lose, but grain price facts are being misrepresented
Tariffs successful at creating regulations and bureaucracy. Applications for 16,000 exemptions so far (from FT)
ICYMI, the next step is TTIP
Actual, existing tariff rates are nearly identical
Farmer bailout, higher consumer prices, production moving offshore and US left out of others’ deals
Good read
Comments show that most haven't actually read the articles in this thread
If reading is not your thing, let John Oliver explain trade and tariffs
If the objective was to deter IP infringement, this would have been the approach. Alas, no
Tariffs are taxes ultimately paid by American consumers in the form of higher prices
Trade with rich countries strengthens the U.S. economy. Focus on the real issue: China. A concerted campaign by rich countries could force China to honor IP rights and allow more foreign access to its markets
The US wins 91% of the trade disputes it brings to the WTO for settlement
factcheck.org/2017/10/trump-…
factcheck.org/2017/10/trump-…
Everyone loses
Two-thirds of chief executives said recent tariffs and future trade tension would have a negative impact on their capital investment decisions cnbc.com/2018/09/24/tru…
Why is the market selling off? Mostly, the stupidity of the trade war, as shown in this long thread. Very predictable
No one making a comment about China actually bothered to read this thread
This thread on how the trade war would impact growth started almost 8 months ago. The macro data (globally) now reflects the self-inflicted slowdown. What happens next for stocks depends a lot on this mess being resolved
