Today’s CPI data shows inflation has moderated in recent months. Not surprising
October real retail sales +2% yoy and at a new all time high. Real retail ex-gas +1% yoy 
October industrial production +4.1% yoy; manufacturing +3%. Both at 10-yr highs. Not recessionary
Companies have been investing. They haven’t invested even more because they don’t need to. That’s how capx works
Trucking tonnage +7% YTD and +6% yoy in October. Trucks cary 70% of US freight
Macro weakness continues to be most pronounced in housing: starts fell 3% yoy and permits fell 6% yoy in October. Most housing data peaked close to a year ago. Housing typically peaks earliest
Adding to weak starts and permits, new home sales dropped 12% yoy in October. The cyclical peak has been a min of 11 mo before the next recession. So far, the peak was last November, 12 mo ago
Key economic and financial fundamentals remain healthy, but fear still dominates the landscape
scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2018/11/still-…
scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2018/11/still-…
Historically, unemployment claims have started to rise at least 7 months ahead of the next recession. Claims reached a 49 year low in mid-September, and have since risen the past two months
Housing typically peaks first, with a long lead time to the next recession. Setting up to be the case this time as well
Core PCE inflation was just 1.8% last month. Looking at the breadth of recent data, a Fed pause wouldn’t be that surprising
