1 - This morning I have some thoughts about immigration, what's happening at America's southern border, the Trump Administration's use of the Bible to justify separating families, and future scenarios/ implications.
Here come the tweets.
Here come the tweets.
2 - It's clear to me that the genesis for separating families at the border stems from the Trump Administration's zero-tolerance attitude on immigration.
3 - The zero-tolerance policy stems from three issues: xenophobia; a perception that somehow, American values are being eroded with new immigrants; and the notion that other programs haven't worked in the past.
4 - The very public debate, invoking the Bible, converting an old Wal-Mart into a holding center, and all the horrific photos are -- I believe -- intended to animate the zero-tolerance policy for a global audience.
5 - This, from @jbmoorephoto, is a powerful image because of what it says... not just to us, as American citizens, but to people around the world. 
6 - The Trump Administration has invented a new kind of isolationism. It's a total retreat from the world while simultaneously treating the entire world as a stage. It's reality isolationism.
Here's why reality isolationism is catastrophic for America's future.
Here's why reality isolationism is catastrophic for America's future.
7 - The world in 2018 is not as the world was in 1918, when post-WWI America withdrew into itself. Money was flowing, GDP was up, technology was being invented, innovation abounded. America entered a period of isolationism and grew a little more nationalistic. But...
8 - ...within just a few years, the Great Depression hit, ravaged our country, and we lost sight of what was happening overseas. We didn't see the rise of Japan and Europe's militaristic dictatorships coming.
9 - But at least our isolationism wasn't performative. It wasn't being announced and shown on TV and codified on Twitter.
We can draw parallels between the mid 1930s and today. They're not perfect, but weak signals are there.
We can draw parallels between the mid 1930s and today. They're not perfect, but weak signals are there.
10 - America's previous isolationism had to do with fear of the unknown, trepidation about war, political pressure, and the misguided idea that America was better going it alone.
Reality isolationism is withdrawing from the world because of ego, power and status.
Reality isolationism is withdrawing from the world because of ego, power and status.
11 - The reasons for America's isolationism 100 years ago made it easier to pivot, to join our allies, and to eventually make the world a better place.
With ego on the line, reality isolationism makes it impossible to pivot. This Administration can't reverse course easily.
With ego on the line, reality isolationism makes it impossible to pivot. This Administration can't reverse course easily.
12 - Here's how reality isolationism plays out in the near-future.
• Global leaders understand that America is more than its current president, but they can't put all decisions on hold until the next election.
• America's global political stature is greatly reduced.
• Global leaders understand that America is more than its current president, but they can't put all decisions on hold until the next election.
• America's global political stature is greatly reduced.
13 - (scenario cont)
• This happens at a critical moment in modern history, as the global economy reacts to automation and AI. This transition will take 70 years, but we're already in it.
• New alliances are formed without America there to weigh in on critical decisions.
• This happens at a critical moment in modern history, as the global economy reacts to automation and AI. This transition will take 70 years, but we're already in it.
• New alliances are formed without America there to weigh in on critical decisions.
14 - (scenario cont)
• America has no leverage as global leaders negotiate our global economy in an age of automation
• China winds up playing a much bigger role, has much more leverage, and offers significant economic investment. Issues like human rights are put aside.
• America has no leverage as global leaders negotiate our global economy in an age of automation
• China winds up playing a much bigger role, has much more leverage, and offers significant economic investment. Issues like human rights are put aside.
15 - (scenario cont)
• Reality isolationism prevents the current administration from rebuilding trust. New alliances are formed, with China in a power position, and the world moves on without us.
• American businesses suffer. Tourism suffers. Everyday life is a little worse
• Reality isolationism prevents the current administration from rebuilding trust. New alliances are formed, with China in a power position, and the world moves on without us.
• American businesses suffer. Tourism suffers. Everyday life is a little worse
16 - (scenario cont)
Our future conflicts are economic. Our future wars are fought algorithmically. America doesn't have the right alliances at the right time. We find ourselves in a valley we can't quite climb out of.
Our future conflicts are economic. Our future wars are fought algorithmically. America doesn't have the right alliances at the right time. We find ourselves in a valley we can't quite climb out of.
17 - America's isolationism 100 years ago was misguided, but there was a reasonable way out that didn't cause our elected officials to lose face.
Reality isolationism doesn't offer the same advantage. The only way out would embarrass our current administration.
Reality isolationism doesn't offer the same advantage. The only way out would embarrass our current administration.
18 - At the moment, the only optimistic reframing I can offer is this: if we can distinguish this current period of American isolationism and retreat as something fundamentally different, global leaders might hold a seat at the table for us, at least temporarily.
19 - I'm a mom and I have a young daughter. I'm gutted hearing the stories and seeing the photos.
Paradoxically, our collective outrage about what's happening at the border, I fear, is playing right into the reality isolationism playbook. (Such as there is one.)
Paradoxically, our collective outrage about what's happening at the border, I fear, is playing right into the reality isolationism playbook. (Such as there is one.)
20 - If ever there was a time for us all to take a much wider view of the present day, and to force ourselves to consider the relationships between seemingly disparate weak signals, it is right now.
21 - Because children grow up to become adults, and adults make decisions about things, and America's reality isolationism is generative.
We're imbuing future adults with horrible ideas about Americans and what America stands for.
It's short-sighted and disgraceful.
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We're imbuing future adults with horrible ideas about Americans and what America stands for.
It's short-sighted and disgraceful.
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One last thing. I am politically independent. I don't particularly like America's two-party system, because humans are messy and our ethos/ individual ideas/ ambitions can't be meaningfully categorized using a binary taxonomy.
