1. Thread about immigration politics. tl;dr: what the US left is doing right now is unproductive, and European liberals aren't much better.
2. Over the last few days I've complained about how Democrats say "abolish ICE" but not "path to citizenship" or any other policy change.
3. There's a lot of soft support out there, which means voters (and thus politicians) respond to what activists choose to emphasize.
4. Here's a chart of US views of migration levels, h/t @davidshor. Only 24% of Americans (and fewer voters bc of age) want more immigration: 
5. But here's another chart (from Gallup via the NYT), h/t @Noahpinion. By a 75-20 margin, Americans say immigration is good.
6. If these were deeply-held views, you wouldn't have 35% wanting less immigration but only 20% saying immigration is bad.
7. Thus, views respond to political demands: deport illegals, path to citizenship, secure the border, more work visas, fewer work visas.
8. It shouldn't be surprising that views on this subject are soft: it affects people who can't vote and rarely know enough voters to matter.
9. People don't even know how many immigrants there are, so all numbers are subject to anchoring and numerology (h/t @wef).
10. This is exactly where I'm going: the center-left and left have to demand concrete actions.
11. This means both rear guard action and demands for positive change, i.e. admitting and naturalizing more people.
12. To the extent there's any concrete demand, it's rear guard: keeping birthright citizenship in France, not building the wall in the US.
13. In the positive direction, liberals and socialists both say things that sound more radical than they are, e.g. abolish ICE.
14. In contrast, there's little appetite for change that's more radical than it sounds, like giving everyone with a job offer a work visa.
15. (As far as I understand, Japan gives a visa to everyone who manages to get a job offer at a reputable corporation, as does Sweden.)
16. This in turn comes from a taste for performative radicalism. "Path to citizenship" is so last decade; radical Millennials call for more.
17. Performative radicals talk of open borders, which is like saying "abolish capitalism" in a debate over the minimum wage or unions.
18. The left knows how to stake serious maximalist position on economic issues (a high minimum wage, sectoral collective bargaining, etc.).
19. But on immigration, it's all fluff. Liberals talk about diversity while delivering little (Trudeau) or worse than nothing (Macron).
20. And socialists are paralyzed by union nativism, and never think about how to reduce immigrants' dependence on employers.
21. Singapore's employment passes are not tethered to a specific employer, unlike US H-1Bs. France and Germany have self-employment visas.
22. It's telling that not a single "H-1Bs are serfdom" leftist proposes making H-1Bs employer-independent. They all propose cuts instead.
23. As soon as nativists get into power, moderate voters realize that maybe nativism isn't great politics.
24. Trump is unpopular; this is the best time to propose a positive program of action, akin to mid-2000s calls for universal health care.
25. (The same is true of May and the Brexit disaster, and over here, Macron's so secure he can easily take in more immigrants if he wants.)
26. So, dear Americans: don't yell at ICE. Demand path to citizenship; an uncapped, employer-independent H-1B; higher asylum quotas. /end
