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Gavin Schmidt @ClimateOfGavin
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Can't we just stop with ridiculous counterpoints that dissolve into mere contrarianism at the slightest consideration of the actual data?
This is the size of the plausible signal of the anthropocene 'event'/'transition' compared to the size of the event at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary.
People who think this is simply a metaphysical conceit to put humans at the center of the geological universe are delusional.
And for people who are clutching pearls at the sight of RCP85, here are the other scenarios. None of this is a worse case scenario - climate sensitivity here is ~2.5ºC, and from a simulation w/o CH4 or CC feedbacks.
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This thread is interesting. What are the real prospects for real time attribution of extreme climate events?
First thing to realize is that it depends on the kind of event. Heat waves, intense rainfall, fires, storms and so on have different dynamics (spatial scales, necessary background conditions etc).
Second point is that to attribute extremes in the way we have been doing (i.e. is there a greater chance of it happening now than before we affected the climate?), we need big data in order to estimate the likelihood of these rare events - tails of the distributions.
Read 12 tweets
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I see that Twitter is excited today about instability, abrupt changes, come backs, and shut downs.

So, time for a mini-thread on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), predictability and perhaps the Younger Dryas cold reversal?
There is some discussion of potential current and ongoing changes in AMOC at @RealClimate this week realclimate.org/index.php/arch… from @rahmstorf, but I'm going to talk about something a little different, namely, what is the scope for changes in AMOC over the longer-term?
It's well known that GCMs suggest that over the 21st Century under increasing GHGs, the AMOC decreases - mostly because of ocean surface warming decreasing the density. doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D…
Read 21 tweets
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This piece barely seems to have been noticed (so it's probably a mistake to mention it at all), but just in case anyone was wondering, it is almost all complete 💩
Volcanos impact climate for sure. On short time scales (as mentioned in the video), eruptions like Mt Pinatubo (1991) or Krakatau (1883) can eject so much SO2 into the stratosphere that the resulting (reflective) sulphate particles cool the planet for a few years
The key is whether enough SO2 gets into the stratosphere where it doesn't wash out very quickly. The impacts of non-explosive non-tropical volcanos (Laki, Bardarbunga, Kilauea) are much more localized and may not have a detectable climate signal at all. [Laki was a big deal tho]
Read 10 tweets

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Hey sure, I’ll join the pile-on as I read Gladwell’s big pot story (newyorker.com/magazine/2019/…). I’m two paragraphs in and I already went to the report he’s citing and found some bullshit.

Here’s what he writes versus one thing the report says:
Yes, he’s right that they say INHALED cannabis has limited data on this. But oral cannabinoids have an abundance of evidence, and they do in fact help a lot of people with nausea and vomiting. You have to say both things. Gladwell only said one of them, and sort of hid the other.
This piece is just rife with a combination of anecdote and relative stats without the absolute numbers. Oh, the incidence of schizophrenia has doubled since 1993 in “the northern part of Finland?” You mean this country, where almost all of its 5 million people live in the south?
Read 21 tweets
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I get that "conservatives hate democracy" is supposed to be a thing now but guys, *nobody sane on either side* believes in anything CLOSE to pure majoritarianism!
Is there some movement to repeal the President's veto power?

Is there a party proposing that we adjudicate court cases by popular vote?

Has someone suggested constitutional amendments be passed by simple majorities?
Is there a proposal to remove the bill of rights and entrust our rights to referenda?

Has someone suggested universal resident voting, enfranchising infants and non-citizens equally?

*EVERYONE* supports franchise restrictions and curtailments of majority power!
Read 81 tweets
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My own view is that gradualism followed by a final exclamation point is a very likely extinction scenario, both for dinosaurs — and for humans. Indulge me in long thread that ends with meditations on #TransformationOfTheHuman... 1/
Today, we are clearly in the middle of what scientists refer to “The Sixth Great Extinction,” akin in many respects to the Fifth one, that killed the dinosaurs, and whose causes are debated in that @TheAtlantic article. So: when did the SGE begin, and how will it end? 2/
First, a small methodological points: geological eras are generally demarcated by either species die offs and emergences and/or some other geological market. This is the debate over how to date the start of the anthropocene, which I discussed here: smallprecautions.blogspot.com/2012/06/period… 3/
Read 26 tweets
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UCC had opportunity to comment on the #Data.Protection & Privacy Bill. The enactment of this law is long overdue. A comprehensive law on the collection & processing personal information gives effect to the right to Privacy envisaged under Article 27(2) of the Constitution
UCC welcome the protections offered by the Bill in terms of export of data, breach notification requirements, data subjects access rights, automated decision making, compensation and the right to be forgotten and provision for financial and penal sanctions for breach of the law.
Distinction between Data collectors & data controllers.
The Bill should however clarify & distinguish Data Collectors, from Data Processors & Data Controllers. Clause 2 is inconsistent with international good practice which provides for two broad categories of Data Controllers
Read 17 tweets
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Kamyonlar kavun taşır. Ben hep size #flood yazarım. Buradaysanız güvenliğiniz için kullanmanız gereken eklenti ve uygulamalardan bahsedeceğim. #AğGüvenliği #MobilGüvenlik
1- AdBlock Plus – Sitelerdeki reklamları engellemekle birlikte reklam ağlarına müdahale ediyor. AdBlock Plus eklentisini kapatmanızı isteyen siteler olacaktır. Bunlar zararlı siteler. #AdBlockPlus
2- Web of Trust – Sitelere güvenip güvenmemeniz gerektiğini bildiren eklenti. Artık hangi siteye nasıl güvenmeliyim diye sormayın, eklentiyi indirin. #WebOfTrust
Read 10 tweets
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GOOOOOOOOOOD TUESDAY MORNING, FRIENDS!!!! It's music day.
Today, we're going to be doing some music feature extraction based on Sunday's poll:
So My Heart Will Go On is the clear winner of the poll, despite the other two songs being much, much better. But, in the name of unbiased science, we'll analyze The People's Favourite AND I WON'T EVEN COMPLAIN EVEN.
Read 72 tweets

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