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Adam Payne @adampayne26
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Big Brexit news tomorrow AM
This has got somewhat out of hand
Exclusive: The EU will reject any UK proposal to stay in the single market for goods, a source close to Michel Barnier told me. With just 6 weeks of Cabinet negotiating left, the Brexit proposal May has reportedly been considering is dead prior to arrival. uk.businessinsider.com/european-union…
On the Brexit white paper, expected on the week beginning July 9, the EU will be "very, very p***** off" if it doesn't contain sufficient detail, a source close to the negotiating team told me. More from Brussels in here. uk.businessinsider.com/european-union…
I’ll be on Sky News at 09:15 talking about this and the summit
Sorry, I meant 09:15 local time (08:15 UK time). You can watch back here if you'd like. news.sky.com/watch-live
Key points about this story pointed out by @faisalislam, @joncstone & others:

— UK is seriously considering this proposal, could be in white paper
— Some EU27 like the idea of UK having SM for goods
— However, "big" member states & Commission do not
— Point 3 outmuscles point 2
Having watched the clip back, I wish I had stressed that non-tariff barriers are more important than tariffs when it comes to the frictionless trade of goods and minimising disruption to UK-EU supply chains. But there we are. Next time.
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More from @adampayne26 see all

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Former universities minister Sam Gyimah speaking about Brexit in central London: “Make no mistake, Britain is on the brink... We face the greatest constitutional and political crisis in peacetime. And the tragedy is we have done this to ourselves.”
People’s Vote supporter Gyimah says he didn’t want to resign as a minister but for MPs to continue enabling Brexit is a “dereliction of our duty as public servants”
Ex-Tory MP & party grandee Lord Patten of Barnes opens his speech with a studs up attack on Liam Fox. He says Fox’s recent remarks about anti-Brexit campaigners are “impertinent and offensive” and adds: “It’s a sad fact that disillusion and mendacity got us into this position.”
Read 6 tweets
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For those of you who enjoyed today’s poll, I’m led to believe that another is coming this weekend. A huge one, 25,000 sample size. On Brexit.
Expect to see a massive opinion poll on Brexit in one of the Sunday papers. "It's one you're going to want to look out for," I've been told.
New YouGov poll of 25,000 people: Labour would suffer a worse election defeat than it did under Michael Foot if it enables Brexit. Labour support would plummet to 26% if Jeremy Corbyn tells his MPs to back Theresa May’s Brexit deal, the poll says.
Read 6 tweets
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Discussed Brexit/no deal with half a dozen pharmaceutical/medical industry leaders this morning. Here are some concerns/causes for panic they raised...
1) Capacity: warehouses can stockpile *some* goods but others have short shelf lives; need personalised conditions, temperature control. Currently "there isn’t capacity in the system” to deliver such a big, complex array of stockpiling methods, life sciences industry leader said
2) Uncertainty: UK gov is identifying stockpiling sites in UK & EU but still hasn’t said exactly how much capacity is needed to stockpile necessary medical/pharma goods. “There isn’t much info coming out. The honest answer is we don’t know,” life sciences industry head admitted
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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The Salzburg summit looms, Raab plays to home crowd over the #Brexit bill, everyone 'wants' a deal ...but yet no-one can explain what it will look like.

So what is happening with #Brexit? Some thoughts after chats with both sides. 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
The first point is that the clock is ticking, but time is standing still.

Raab talks about "good progress" but actually talks are at a standstill. He bounces around looking all perky and boxerly, but there's isn't much to say. On the tough stuff anyway. /2
Barnier says divorce deal is "80%" done, and deal can be clinched in 6-8 weeks IF the Brits are "realistic".

Markets jump for joy, but they overlook that "IF" and what Barnier means by "realistic".

So what does he mean? /3
Read 25 tweets
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Why did the European Commission not publish killer assessments of May's 'single market for goods' #Brexit pitch? How did the Brits get hold of them so quickly? Some thoughts. 1/THREAD

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
First the bugging part. Did the spooks at GCHQ/MI6 have a hand in procuring the slides, or contents thereof, from the July 5 Article 50 Working Group?

Frankly, who knows? It's sure not impossible - recall Obama's NSA bugged Merkel - but EU concerns speak to the lack of trust/2
Just as plausibly one of those attending briefed the Brits that the Commission was about to fire a pre-emptive strike against May's expected Brexit pitch on the day of Chequers.

If that's what happened, it raises several interesting questions. /3
Read 22 tweets
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1. Central to the crunch in #Brexit talks is that the ultras think the EU is over-egging the NI border situation and have unjustly rejected their ideas because of a political agenda to annex NI for Ireland. Which is bollocks...
2. It's really quite simple. The EU has controls on its outer frontiers because it has a system of rules to keep certain things out be they counterfeit airline spares of adulterated foods. It's a system, it's *their* system, and the want to keep it intact.
3. The UK has decided that it does not want to be inside of this system. If we didn't share a land border with the EU then that wouldn't be much of a problem. But we do. And it's a big problem...
Read 21 tweets
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1. So why are the ultra #Brexit morons up in arms about May's ill fated proposal? In a nutshell it comes down to the inability to diverge on standards which then puts limitations on what we can offer by way of trade deals with the rest of the world. In theory that is.
2. But the point they miss, is that the foundation of EU rules comprises of global standards and these same standards form the backbone of any FTA the EU has with a third country. It is now in a space race to complete similar deals with Aus/NZ/Japan/Korea/Mexico and India.
3. The trend for some time has been toward convergence on the global standards, and with every deal the EU signs, the fewer opportunities there are for divergence. The EU is ahead of the game because it is a more lucrative market than the UK.
Read 16 tweets
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Sir Ivan Rogers has crashed the Policy Scotland website with his 11,052 word #Brexit speech.

The link is below, but in the interim, here are some excerpts and some commentary - since, as you'd expect, it gives a shrewd account of where #Brexit is now/1

policyscotland.gla.ac.uk/blog-sir-ivan-…
First point is this speech is a plague on both houses - remainers and brexiteers - and a call for analysis based on what is possible, not on wishful thinking.

That will always lead to charges of 'defeatism', but while Rogers may be an Eeyore, he knows too much to be ignored /2
First substantive point. There has been a rise in 'no deal' rhetoric again - see @FraserNelson column for a synthesis of these renewed threats here

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…

...But Rogers isn't buying.../3
Read 23 tweets

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