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Beth Rigby @BethRigby
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Is there a third way? Apparently so. No 10 saying this morning that is has an alternative customs plan to present at Chequers that is neither Max fac nor Customs partnership. #chequers #brexit
No detail on this 'third way' & no briefing papers yet to ministers. Customs plan to be revealed on Friday at #Chequers. One senior minister: "I think it'll be a hybrid, complex fudge specifically tailored for a different regime for goods and services" #brexit
Senior minister: "If we didn't have a lawyerly fudge and were out with no deal, that would be costly. Those saying we should take on the world are delusional"
And it looks like the White Paper has been pencilled in for July 12th, the very day that Donald Trump arrives in the UK. No detail for month and months only to get it on the very day the whole of SW1 is on another huge story. Smart politics some would say #Brexitwhitepaper
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Sky Views: Ending austerity is PM's big Brexit con > Designed solely to push Chequers through her own party, the PM has given Corbyn not just an open goal but an empty pitch on which to play the Tories news.sky.com/story/sky-view…
The No 10 narrative will go like this: ‘Vote down Chequers and risk economic Armageddon’ (complete with some scary Treasury modelling on what a No-Deal looks like)
The whips will then use the prospect of economic Armageddon to press wobbling Brexiteers - and Labour MPs - to vote with May on Brexit
Read 4 tweets
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DUP abstains. DUP source; this was designed to be a warning shot. ‘Weren’t trying to hurt govt but to show them that we won’t necessarily follow them through the voting lobby’
DUP met with the chief whip today. Told the meeting was frank and @JulianSmithUK left in no doubt that DUP requires the PM to keep promises made for NI in order for them to keep theirs
And..... on the matter of voting down the Budget & withdrawing from confidence & supply deal, DUP source suggests that PM ‘could go because she can’t hold together her govt, and someone else could take over’ >> that’s pretty, er, punchy.
Read 3 tweets
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NEW: No-deal roaming charges. Govt confirms my story that surcharge-free roaming "cannot be guaranteed" in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Govt also (as I reported) says it will legislate to apply limits if necessary. Notes some operators "no current plans" to change approach
And.... While govt keen to stress companies covering 85% of consumers say have "no current plans" to reintroduce roaming charges, that is very different from current EU's legal protection, aka 'Roam Like at Home'. And 15% consumers NOT covered in that pledge (a lot of phones)
NO DEAL DRIVING: You'll need an international permit to drive in EU. AA bemoans "extra burden" & says it's disappointed these permits can only be issued at Post Offices. Cost = £5.50. Queue times? NAO said PO's might have to issue up to 7m of these permits in first year... urgh
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Is the big #brexit climbdown beginning?

Are the Brexiteers about to decide to 'buy into' the idea that Mrs May can fix the Irish border with technology? That unicorns *do* exist?

Mad? Let me explain... 1/Thread
First @tnewtondunn reports Brexiteers like Iain Duncan Smith and co are 'biting' on a No 10 briefing that "special arrangements" could fix the Irish border - ie 'technology'



Then FT's Laura Hughes says 'Gang of Five' are too /2

@tnewtondunn Wow. Amazing....suddenly, after all these months of negotiating it seems like Number 10 has put it's hand down the back of the sofa and found a 'fix' for the border issue that has bedevilled these talks for all this time.

I love this quote particularly... /3
Read 24 tweets
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The Salzburg summit looms, Raab plays to home crowd over the #Brexit bill, everyone 'wants' a deal ...but yet no-one can explain what it will look like.

So what is happening with #Brexit? Some thoughts after chats with both sides. 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
The first point is that the clock is ticking, but time is standing still.

Raab talks about "good progress" but actually talks are at a standstill. He bounces around looking all perky and boxerly, but there's isn't much to say. On the tough stuff anyway. /2
Barnier says divorce deal is "80%" done, and deal can be clinched in 6-8 weeks IF the Brits are "realistic".

Markets jump for joy, but they overlook that "IF" and what Barnier means by "realistic".

So what does he mean? /3
Read 25 tweets
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1. The ERG have proven adept at making noise but they don't seem to be able to grasp policy. They get shot down every time they put their heads above the parapet and they have not been able to produce a credible alternative to chequers. #Brexit thread...
2. With philandering Johnson having blown his window of opportunity and the ERG seemingly backing down it looks like May will survive until Brexit day. That, though, does not change the fact that Chequers is a non-starter.
3. So given that member states are not prepared for a no deal Brexit any more than we are the Eu will want to buy time so will agree to a much more vague political statement on trade just to get the withdrawal agreement in the bag. That will still require an NI backstop.
Read 10 tweets
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So @MichelBarnier
may have appeared to pull his punches today, but don't be fooled. He stuck firmly to EU guns.

This is a key word "de-dramatise" and you'll hear it a lot more - and it is not good news for Mrs May. Here's why /1
If EU sticks to guns on cherry-picking, then that leaves UK with basic FTA...and that means an Irish sea goods border.

When Barnier says "de-dramatise" he means May and Davis need to give over on their contention that such a border is a threat to UK constitutional integrity /2
So when Barnier uses this word, it's code for "the only compromise we need here is by the UK" on the question of the east-west border that would be thrown up by hiving of Northern Ireland into separate regulatory orbit. Something May has said is "unacceptable". /3
Read 9 tweets
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The 'third way' is now the new thing in the #Brexit debate. Like No.10 suddenly discovered something last weekend after two years of trying.

So here's a long read on why there are no magic bullets to fix the customs conundrum - my latest

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
On the upside, a 'third way' carries implicit acknowledgement that the first two ways (the MaxFax and the New Customs Partnership) cannot solve the need for a border in the Irish Sea, if May wants to leave Customs Union and Single Market.

So what might the 'third way' be? /2
It will be a 'news customs arrangement' (which is code for a customs union, probably sugared by the idea that it's 'temporary' and only a bridge to the 'future' when technology (block chain blah) works and the 'new customs partnership) comes to fruition. /3
Read 10 tweets
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Extraordinary evidence at Treasury committee from Jon Thompson, CEO of HMRC on customs and Brexit today
The Brexiter favourite Max Fac - would cost business between £17 and £20bn a year

- that's almost 1% of GDP

- just for filling in forms

Thanks #Brexit
How does he arrive at the figure

200m export consignments at an average cost of £32.50 each = £6.5bn (times two because two way traffic)

plus around £4 to £7bn of rules of origin compliance from filling in other forms
Read 7 tweets

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