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Sam Lowe @SamuelMarcLowe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Back to this.

My hypothesis is that post-Brexit, outside single market, rather large mode one share (services supplied from UK into EU-27) of fin and other business services exports:

a) decreases
b) shifts to mode 3 (sells out of a EU27 subsidiary)
c) (and overall decrease)
Chart above shows my estimates of UK services exports to EU-27 by mode of supply, by the way. It is slightly incomplete, for example I don't have the mode 3 data for construction services, but gives a general idea)
All of which could** lead to a fairly significant loss of UK tax revenue.

Does that all sound about right?

**subject to terms and conditions
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More from @SamuelMarcLowe see all

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I often find myself thinking about the claim that UK food prices will fall post-Brexit so long as the UK removes the existing EU tariffs on food imports (which can be quite high) either unilaterally or via new free trade agreements.

I'm sceptical, for a few reasons.
The first being that vast majority of our imported food comes from EU. Even if we unilaterally dropped tariffs on all imported food, we would still import a lot of food from the EU. EU food will be more expensive than now, if only because of new bureaucracy (ignoring tariffs).
Second, currency.

The IFS estimate that unilateral tariff removal could reduce household prices about 0.7–1.2%. This benefit has already been negated by a ~2% depreciation in sterling post-referendum.

ifs.org.uk/uploads/public…
Read 8 tweets
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Day 4 without a working boiler. I am starting to get cold.
Fair point.
Fixed! And I now have the number of a great gas engineer for any North Londoners in need. (Diagnosed and fixed it in 30 minutes compared to a 3 hour failed attempt by cowboys on NY eve).
Read 4 tweets
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Tariffs not biggest issue for British food exporters to EU, bigger issue is delays at the border and additional bureaucracy.

For example, milk for human consumption must enter EU via inspection post where 100% shipments subject to identity & doc checks; 50% physical inspection.
Because twitter, I’ve had a few “well that’s not a problem because we don’t export much milk” responses despite me saying it was just an example.

Here’s a product by product breakdown of checks and frequency UK products of animal origin would face if no deal.
The physical inspection rate can be reduced if the UK and EU reach an equivalence arrangement but this doesn’t remove need for document and identity checks nor for products to enter EU via a veterinary border inspection post. Anyway, it’s all in here: apha.defra.gov.uk/documents/bip/…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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So @theresa_may got a an absolute kicking tonight.

She made her pitch to the the EU leaders and they basically said no.

Compare and contrast. Ugly. #Brexit
@theresa_may This is not pretty reading.

In Para 3 the EU rip out reassurance that Backstop is "not a desirable outcome for the Union" and add a bit on the 'integrity of the single market.

Para 4 the add is designed to remind UK that trust cuts both ways, as does this deal. /2
@theresa_may Then the really bad part.

Para 5 was controversial part even before the night began (the Irish hated it). It promised to examine whether "any further reassurance can be provided".

In the final it was ripped out completely and replaced with a pledge to ramp up no-deal preps./3
Read 8 tweets
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1. Central to the crunch in #Brexit talks is that the ultras think the EU is over-egging the NI border situation and have unjustly rejected their ideas because of a political agenda to annex NI for Ireland. Which is bollocks...
2. It's really quite simple. The EU has controls on its outer frontiers because it has a system of rules to keep certain things out be they counterfeit airline spares of adulterated foods. It's a system, it's *their* system, and the want to keep it intact.
3. The UK has decided that it does not want to be inside of this system. If we didn't share a land border with the EU then that wouldn't be much of a problem. But we do. And it's a big problem...
Read 21 tweets
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The Chequers plan is dying. May faces rebellion on both sides. She can survive, but not proceed. So what happens next? Some thoughts after chats with both sides.

(Shorter: it's still all about the Irish backstop)

1/Thread
As talks get under way in Brussels today, the EU can:

a) attack - eviscerate Chequers for cherry picking

b) parry - play for time, probe UK real red lines

c) focus on what is deliverable to conclude Withdrawal Agreement in Autumn /2

More here: telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
It is the last of these where smart money lies. Chequers is dying anyway and is a 'future relationship issue'.

The focus is delivering a divorce treaty by 29.03.19 and for this most of work is done.

Except the backstop.... /3
Read 18 tweets
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1. The ultra brexiters are going all out for their WTO option #Brexit. They are gradually pushing the narrative that anything including a withdrawal agreement is a betrayal of Brexit and their thicko followers are buying it. This is dangerous.
2. As a Brexiter of long standing I know these players quite well. They are all indoctrinated in the ultra libertarian deregulation fantasies and the fact that just about every business group says they don't want deregulation it does not have any impact on their delusions.
3. As to their followers, these are the intellectually subnormal grunters who genuinely do think the Eu is a modern manifestation of the USSR. They're not well. Now don't get me wrong, I'm still a leaver but these people are fucking loony tunes.
Read 27 tweets
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1. Here is a #Brexit thread for the benefit of @ProfBrianCox so that he does not make the same elementary mistakes again. The single market is a regulatory union comprised of EU members and three efta states not including Switzerland.
2. The agreement between those cvountries is the EEA agreement which is administered y the Efta court system and the @EFTAsecretariat - where the adoption of rules is a process of co-determination unlike Switzerland which adopts rules with ECJ direct applicability.
3. Essenitally that makes the single market a join venture between the Efta EEA states and the EU. It should be noted that Efta states are not in any customs union and do not require one.
Read 14 tweets
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1. The one component missing from #Brexit is an intellectual foundation. Eurosceptics once had one. There was a committee meeting twenty years ago in a Salisbury farmhouse twenty years ago and that's the last time we collectively gave it any thought.
2. At the core of it, the one thing we all agree on in the Benn/Foot angle on democracy - but there has never been agreement on an alternative vision. The old boys wanted the Commonwealth whereas some wanted to revive Efta.
3. A common strand has been an aversion to regulation and red tape and collectively eurosceptics have never really understood the economic utility of regulatory harmonisation. It was largely seen as a sinister integrationist device.
Read 21 tweets

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