My early, sure-to-be-revised priors on Kavanaugh:
1. Reaction among Republican elites and other high-info GOP voters will be pretty good overall but with a range from "meh" to very excited. Lower-info GOP voters won't really care that much unless the hearings get interesting.
1. Reaction among Republican elites and other high-info GOP voters will be pretty good overall but with a range from "meh" to very excited. Lower-info GOP voters won't really care that much unless the hearings get interesting.
2. Confirmation is probable but not quite certain. He has a long paper trail which could elongate the process. Paul has voiced objections. His comments on Roe are framed carefully enough that Collins/Murk will probably feel OK. His stance on executive authority could be an issue.
3. Red-state Democratic senators won't feel that much pressure to vote aye and won't face that many political consequences for failing to do so. He'll be pretty easy to frame as a partisan and he's not as sympathetic as e.g. Barrett.
4. Jurisprudentially, maybe not the *most* conservative pick, but certainly quite conservative and probably has the smallest margin of error. Barrett might have been more conservative *on average* but also with more chance of being a "surprise" down the line.
5. The more Kavanaugh's views on presidential power becomes the dominant storyline, the more problematic everything could become for Trump. wapo.st/2KS8MQj
6. In sum, I think this is a mediocre pick for Trump politically. Politically, I'd have taken Kethledge (lowest risk) or Barrett (highest upside). Could be a very good pick for conservatives jurisprudentially, however—and therefore a bad one for liberals.
7. Democratic critiques of Kavanaugh will probably be a smorgasbord, even though they'd likely benefit from a more focused approach.
