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Brendan Bernstein @BMBernstein
, 12 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
So you want to use Augur....Step 2...
1) Learn how to run, sync and maintain a node locally. LOL not happening
2) defer to a centralized, trusted node provider (INFURA)

Apps like Augur will further centralize Ethereum, by effectively forcing users to rely on trusted validators
Augur defaults to INFURA...because why the hell wouldnt they
Even with INFURA I've been stuck on 99% synced for 15 minutes.

I JUST WANT TO GAMBLE!!
After 20 minutes of syncing fun, I finally made it in.

Maybe this is a bug, but I imagine this will get worse over time with more markets launching
Obviously had to go to the Trump market first and as I was about to finally use my ETH for a good purpose, I saw the resolution method.

"Outcome will be determined by the news media". WTF? Like infowars? or nytimes? Or what?
How will any of these oracles be trusted when enough money is at stake? And if we need to "trust" an oracle and the validators (INFURA), why do we need a decentralized prediction market again?
A look at some fees:
- Creating a market costs ~0.07 ETH or $30 at current prices
- Creating an open market order of just .0005 ETH costs $3
Just tried making a limit bet for .7 ETH. Fees at a gas price of 8 gwei, which is historically low, are $22.

Is that recommended gas limit correct? 6 million gas?? That's 75% of one block...
Just crashed on me. I think I was blacklisted
Common mistaken perception is that Augur is "computationally intensive" so fees are high. It's only computationally intensive for a shitty computer.

My TI-84 could run these computations 100x better than Ethereum.

h/t @_prestwich
Congrats to the Augur team on the launch nonetheless. I'd like to see this working in the wild. Don't let ETH drag you down
What is the point of REP again? I don't think I touched it once throughout this process.

Wasn't this meant to be staked by oracles? Is Augur going to force ESPN and Infowars to stake REP? Or is it staked by the market creator?
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More from @BMBernstein see all

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Deficits will increase until there are negative ramifications. But that will be too late

People lose faith in the USD and the only recourse to weakness will be to jack rates up

In 2022 100% of our budget will already be going to existing liabilities

We cant afford higher rates
It’s easy to see this spiraling out of control

Other countries stop buying treasuries —> we jack up rates further -> our interest expenses increase and we need to issue more debt —> more people stop buying —> higher rates...etc
Given our existing liabilities — both entitlements + debt — we’re on a surefire path to massive tax hikes that all go to pay *existing* entitlements

This is a recipe for instability.

The working class is going to be funding the excesses of the last 50 years
Read 3 tweets
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Cramer in 2000, days before the collapse:

"throw out all of the matrices and formulas that existed before the Web....they can't make money for you anymore, and that is all that matters. If we use any of what Graham and Dodd teach us, we wouldn't have a dime under management.”
This is similar to "cryptonetwork valuation thinking

Null hypothesis should be that the status quo is unchanged: assets are worth discounted future cash flows

Errors with tech valuation weren't because of a lack of tools but bc of errors predicting cash flow and new biz models
The tacit assumption is that crypto has created an entirely new paradigm -- for both asset valuation and fundraising

But my base case assumption is that other than which ONE ASSET wins as the primary money, the only way others can accrue value will be through cash flow
Read 4 tweets
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i'm long web 3 if it means decentralizing trusted 3rd parties

but IMO every attempt on a b-chain is not close to what it'll ultimately look like

progress in crypto is just inertia --Iterating on existing b-chains just for innovations sake

nobody questioning the premise itself
what if the right model to create a censorship resistant web isn't on a blockchain with a native token?

most goals can be accomplished with existing software. Do people forget the whole p2p wave?

governance of OSS already exists and so do distributed protocols (DHTs, IPFS)
feels like people are wedded to the token model from a sunk cost fallacy, and all the investment $$ of web 3.0 is still going into very similar ideas

but my bet is that FB isn't going to be disrupted by a social network on a blockchain that ICOs....
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Ce matin, la hausse de consommation électrique de 19 GW (sur 56 GW initialement) entre 4h et 8h a été couverte comme suit #MixElectrique :
- À 29% par le passage des #STEP du pompage au turbinage
- 21% par la réduction des exports
- 21% par le #GazNaturel en CCG
- 15% par les lacs de #barrage
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(Et cette fois, ça boucle, j'ai une somme à 100%, je progresse 😎 \o/)
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Finally a media article touching on the elephant in the room: Ethereum has become highly centralized. #infura coindesk.com/the-race-is-on…
Related:
Related, pertinent questions about Infura / ETH from last march (author @henryhe): hackernoon.com/11000-1-ethere…
Read 3 tweets
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The term “PROVIDER” is very derogatory and insulting. Do you know the history of this term? See the IMAJ (Israeli Medical Association Journal).

bit.ly/2QxJFox
2. “Only a few months after the Nazi seizure of power on 30 January 1933, the German Society of Pediatrics asked their members of Jewish descent either to resign voluntarily, or be stricken from the memb bership list. “
3. “The Society rapidly embraced Nazi racial policy and by 1934 the remaining Society members were already gleefully holding their first fully Aryan National Pediatric meeting.”
Read 8 tweets
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#Augur $Rep is the #65 dapp by users (35 DAU), and not even the most used prediction market. 😐
dappradar.com/category/other
#ethereum
17 people work for Augur.
linkedin.com/company/augur-…
Remember, this was the crown jewel of #ethereum after the DAO exploded.
Read 4 tweets
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@Scavino45
#QAnon

6/23/18
🇺🇸 Good morning, Patriots

This thread may be of interest if you:
➤ want to learn more about Q
➤ are undecided about Q
➤ want to teach others about Q

Start with this video, 6 min.
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In Dec 2017, the Q Clearance Patriot, known to us as "Q", informed us that our shared research had already reached 1.2 million.
3
Anons (those of us on the 8ch board who work with the Q messages, decoding, researching, sharing, archiving) know that citizens of many countries are participating in this Q Project. If USA is successful, there is hope for the world citizens who are fighting for LIBERTY.
Read 33 tweets
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A deeply personal thread about what spirituality looks like for me, subject to change within the next hour.

This is also written specifically for my wandering, unchurched still-Christian fam. I love you. We're in this together.
The most exciting part of being an unchurched Christian, aside from actively avoiding religious trauma (#lol), is being able to distance myself from cold formulaic methods of approaching spirituality & embrace the beautifully mysterious dance with the divine.
Like, just learning just how *broad* of a definition church really IS.

I mean, I AM THE CHURCH, MOFUKKAS. I hold the Holy Spirit. Holla. I'm not just going grocery shopping, THE CHURCH IS TOO & SHE LOVES DORITOS.
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Trending hashtags

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