Thread by @Raman_Ghavami

[THREAD] Can IRI block the strait of Hormuz?
The short answer is no. It may not be as easy as it was for the US in 1988 to reopen it but without deploying any troops Trump could open the strait. Plus other gulf countries won't tolerate such act by IRI. IRI will lose.
1/18

Everyday more than 20mb of oil are transported through the strait of Hormuz which represents 1/5 of world's oil production.During Iraq-Iran war,Iran tried to cut off Iraq's oil shipment by placing mines which hit the US instead of Iraq 1988. 2/18

In response US launched an operation which targeted Iranian military bases and oil production infrastructure . In just less than a day US damaged more than half of Iranian navy.
Threats of blocking the strait has always effected the global oil price in the past.
3/18

If Iran ever did act on these threats, the cost of oil undoubtedly will also effect the world's economy. If Iran tries to block the strait then US cannot reopen it in couple of days because:
4/18

1. US has a vey limited force there
2. Since 1988 Iran has been building a force to have the ability to take control of the strait with its two separate navies(Navy of the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution and Islamic Republic of Iran Navy). 5/18

Iran knows that they can never match with firepower of US navy.Therefore, for the past few decades Iran has focused on symmetrical warfare. In total Iran may have two thousand boats which most of them are small vassals and not heavily armed. 6/18

Iran's goal is to use as many vassals possible as for them[as we know in Iraq-Iran war]isn't important how many of their soldier die.Mass majority of Iranians won't support IRI like they did in Iraq-Iran war but Iran has spent billions of dollars in Lebanon,Bosnia,Iraq etc. 7/18

Spending billions have made them to have more none-Iranian soldiers than Iranians in any possible war. Ideological fighters just like ISIS but the Shia version of them. The plan with not heavy armed vassals will be to overwhelm US forces with their numbers.8/18

Iran has no air craft carriers neither any destroyers but Iran has 3 corvettes, each armed with 48 anti-ship missiles, three to four dozens of missile-boats armed with Chinese and Russian made anti-ship missiles. 9/18

Iran also has 33 submarines 2/3 of which are Majid submarines, 3 Russian Kilo-class subs which are Iran's most effective weapon they can use becaus eof their capabilities, 5 Frigate warship, up to 10 Mine-warfare crafts and more than 200 patrol crafts.10/18

Iranian coasts lines are full with anti ship missiles batteries,missile sides, naval ports and air bases located as you can see in the pictures. Iran has a very week air power force as all were left before 1979.11/18

IRI purchased 4 S-300[from Russia] one of them is near the strait but they are mobile and Iran can move others too.IRI also has:
1.Its own S-300 called Bavar-373. Iran claims the system is much better than S-300 but Iran has history of making highly questionable claims.12/18

2.Chinese SAM HQ-2,
A few
3. 1SA-5 and SA-6 and maybe one US Hawk
But importantly is IRI's land base anti ship missiles which mostly are Chinese but can destroy US naval vassals and tankers.13/18

Iran blocking the Strait unexpectedly the US'd only have to use whatever they have in the region:
One carrier strike carrying up to five cruisers,40 to 48 f-18 multi-role fighters,USS patan with 2-3 submarines&possibly 1 converted Ohio-class sub(150 TH cruise missiles.14/18

US can also use its bases in the region as you can see here which are loaded with F-15s, F-18s, F-16s AWACS tankers, reconnaissance aircraft, drones B-52 bombers and has recently hosted B1 and B2 bombers&F-22 stealth fighters. This could be Iran's nightmare.
15/18

IRI Armies today poses a larger and advanced threat than it did during Operation Praying Mantis(1988). At that time Iran was involved in a war with Iraq and much of its forces were engaged in that war in this scenario this wouldn't be the case.16/18

However, IRI can only make mission a little bit difficult for the US to reopen the Strait. The U.S. would have to clear any mines&eliminate naval vessels in anti-ship missile threatening shipping clearing minefields requires vulnerable slow-moving ships and helicopters. 17/18

But with the technology US has Iran cannot hold its ground more than a few days. 18/18