Theme of the day appears to be the lack of vision, possibly even utter bankruptcy, of the Government and ERG approach to Brexit - first here from @rafaelbehr "The WTO has become a rhetorical device" 1/ theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Then we have a development of the concept of Leave 2.0 from the sage @Sime0nStylites - essentially that none of the current plans work - whether no-deal or Canada or Chequers 2/
So it isn't actually uncommon during a lengthy trade negotiation to lose sense of why you're negotiating in the first place, as you argue over what divides - it certainly happened in TTIP. It's happening now in Brexit talks for the UK 3/
For the Government, this PM, no vision must be allowed to develop for fear of being divisive or losing control. As Cameron failed to prepare for a no vote in the referendum so May is failing to prepare properly for life beyond the EU 4/
There are odd bits of Government planning or consultation, on trade remedies, agricultural support, TPP, no deal. But on whole swathes of policy, nothing. What trade policy, what industrial strategy, what regulations post Brexit? 5/
And by not discussing the future you lose the chance, as the PM has continually, to build a consensus on the way forward. When we leave the EU in March the debate on the future of the UK will be just starting. Years of fun (or not) to come... 6/
The ERG ultra-Brexiters have concentrated on why the economy will be stronger after Brexit, which as virtually all economic theory says it won't be, means using the dubious interpretations of facts provided by the likes of IEA and Minford 6/
Any ERG vision is internally contradictory - WTO rules being better for frictionless trade than the EU, but we still need trade deals with the rest of the world, and no-deal involves deals in areas like aviation. We are promised a new paper soon... don't hold your breath 7/
Is there any such thing as a mainstream Brexit view? We hear rumours of MPs around Michael Gove, and a pragmatic EEA centred vision. But these are then denied, as said MPs would be rejecting both Chequers (PM) and the ERG - which may be career limiting 8/
A 'WTO Brexit' is essentially a nihilist Brexit - a rejection of everything else in the world. It cannot possibly be a basis for a successful international country - we failed to negotiate with the EU, our WTO negotiations are struggling, we're great negotiators? 9/
One last negative tweet before the sunlit uplands - while factual media still struggle with the basics of trade (today tariffs with regard to Africa) we're not exactly being set up as a country that will successfully negotiate 10/
Sunlit uplands? The PM and Number 10 navigate us somehow to a long-term transition and we can all have a rest after March. No vision, no future relationship, nobody's first choice, but might just about do 11/
Possibility of sunlit uplands 2? ERG abandon their utterly discredited advisors and start taking better advice - unlikely as it would require them to face up to facts on how world trade negotiations actually work 12/
Sunlit uplands 3? The campaigners for another referendum have an astonishing breakthrough, where 70%+ support them, and support remain, and we forget all about Brexit. Still looks unlikely they can overcome the respect the referendum result feeling 13/
Sunlit uplands 4? The better Brexit faction or whatever they are called develop some courage and set out a vision which is neither Chequers or WTO. Realistically it's EEA unless someone will be even braver and suggest Irish reunification. Still unlikely 14/
On current trajectory we will get the exhausted visionless Brexit as continuity EU membership without the vote, or the nihilist stuff-the-world WTO Brexit.
Is this really the best the UK can do? 15/ ends
Is this really the best the UK can do? 15/ ends
