Thread about our new paper, which gives a description of the rise of the Radical Right in Sweden, both from the supply side (politicians) and the demand side (voters) — with @ollefolke. drive.google.com/file/d/115uMhY… 1/9 
The Sweden Democrats entered parliament in 2010 and became the third largest party in 2014 — a rise that preceded the 2015 refugee crisis. We link the rise to two macroeconomic events that triggered income inequality and job insecurity for large labor market segments. 2/9
1. In 2006—12, dramatic tax and spending cuts were implemented to "make work pay", causing people without stable employment to fall behind in disposable income (left). 2. The GFC caused job insecurity among people with stable jobs, but vulnerable to automation (right). 3/9
We measure if groups with deteriorating economic conditions are over-represented among SD politicians, who are perfectly identified in register data. We study voting in municipalities and electoral precincts (<1,200 people), and with annual register data for all residents. 4/9
Outsiders plus vulnerable insiders make up 50% of the population, 60% of SD politicians, but just 30% of politicians in other parties. The SD:s over-representation is greater for sub-categories of outsiders who lost out more from the reform agenda (see Figure 5 in the paper). 5/9
The SD gained most votes where inequality grew most (i.e., outsiders lost most), and where insiders were most exposed to job-loss (i.e. vulnerable insider share highest). This relationship is also strong between electoral precincts within municipalities (see Figure 10). 6/9
The relationships are strong in regressions with flexible controls for education, age, and industrial composition, various (consistently insignificant) controls for immigration. Crime rates, media reporting on immigration, and political contextual variables added in Appendix. 7/9
SD politicians appear to be citizen candidates for their voters. They come from the same labor market strata, hurt by the economic events; and they share negative outlooks on political elites and immigrants. They are also new to politics: only 2% have been elected before. 8/9
The rise of the Sweden Democrats has brought people from under-represented, low-resource groups into the political arena. This could be interpreted as a positive change to descriptive representation, or a threat to the qualifications of the political class. 9/9
