Thread by @deanbarker

2016 upended all my previous experience with political analysis, and so I no longer have faith in my election thoughts. So you'd be wise to stop reading this now.

Still, I am having thoughts, specifically about the #NHGov primary, on which I'm not yet decided. #nhpolitics

The Kelly gubernatorial campaign seems the latest iteration of the formula whose previous iterations were the Shaheen and Hassan campaigns. Lots of institutional support, take the pledge, broad themes.

It works!

More accurately: it has worked.

Marchand feels like Cilley in 2012 (disclosure: I worked social media for that). Wonky, specifics, no pledge, willing to take risks, little institutional support (and so fewer resources for field,) etc.

A first term gov who is not a Craig Benson type is supposed to win re-election in NH.

Trump was supposed to lose, too, remember. A lot of political "supposed to"-s are in the dustbin now.

A blue wave could easily knock out Sununu this November.

Is the old NH Dem formula still the best one? In a campaign that Sununu is expected to win, but might not given our new era, do we need something bolder?

Hard to say.

Complicating all this is past vs. present.

Kelly's past is solidly progressive, but who's today presenting as more moderate.

For Marchand, the opposite.

Bernie demolished Hillary in NH in 2016. Rightly or wrongly (I believe wrongly), he was perceived as more progressive.

Maybe times are changing. Maybe it's time for the kind of campaign Marchand is offering for a better chance at victory in November.

Or, maybe not.

Both of them would make terrific governors.

This is hard.