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Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
$FB - I think this is likely to lead the market darlings lower. Someone has to crack first, and it appears it's going to be FB. When Google goes, its all over.

Here is the Log chart of FB - Gone.
Here is the daily $FB chart - on key support
Here is the weekly chart and the 200 week moving average. On average, anyone who bought this stock over the last two years is flat and very likely about to lose money...
Meanwhile, the news flow gets worse and worse with people leaving the app, along with advertisers. They haven't got a good monetization option from whatsApp yet and until they do, this stock needs to get re-rated.WhatsApp is $FB's future and India is the early test bed (payments)
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As @Sunchartist points out daily, almost everyone is missing the speed that the Indian Rupee is declining... its in free fall, down almost 18% this year... so far.1/
The Indonesia Rupiah is nearly as bad -15% this year...2/
The Chilean Peso is also suffering badly... -19% at its worst, before the pullback 3/
Read 6 tweets
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Europe is on the move... Italian spreads are breaking out... 1/
Spanish spreads have broken their wedge...2/
Portuguese spreads are also widening...3/
Read 7 tweets
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A few Sunday morning charts to make you step back a look at exactly how critical things are getting for the Dollar bull market... This is going to dictate the macro narrative for the next 6 months, which ever way is plays out. For me, I think the $ goes much higher, faster.
Exhibit A - The Fed Broad Trade Weighted Dollar Index has formed a huge cup and handle formation. The acceleration phase is close...
Exhibit B - $CNY The Chinese currency will move through 7.00 if the next round of trade wars occur. It will not necessarily be driven by China moving the rate but by the basket moving, thus repricing $CNY.
Read 9 tweets

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chanyeol and his four-year-old daughter naeun have been celebrating the last two christmases with no one else but the two of them.

chanyeol is planning to celebrate this year's christmas with naeun's uncles (chanyeol's best friends) but naeun is planning something else.
"daddy~ our christmas break will be in a few days." naeun cheered from the passenger seat while chanyeol was putting on her seatbelt.

"really? that means daddy could finally take you to the arcade." chanyeol told her daughter with the same cheery tone.

"yes & we'll eat a lot!"
"we will." chanyeol promised. the car engine roared & the two were off to naeun's school.

naeun is in kindergarten & she goes to a school a bit far from their house but closer to chanyeol's workplace. as soon as she finishes school, chanyeol picks her up & brings her to his work
Read 235 tweets
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#Chart #EXTRAVAGANZA

Please read the whole thread - will start posting now...but eating dinner so will take a while to get the 30 to 40 tweets done

/1
Given the two crashes in one year and the recent #FANG blow up...how much cash do you think Mutual Funds are holding? How about the lowest ever!

More over their allocations to Stocks remain among the highest ever.

/2
And how are those stock/equity investments postured?

We’ll very precariously as #NYSE and #Nasdaq #Composite show...completely stopped at major resistance...not only that there is the breadth question which we will address later and is terrible

/3
Read 38 tweets
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So this story is getting a lot of attention this morning — but let's not get too excited too quickly nytimes.com/2018/08/21/us/…
This is the Microsoft post from yesterday evening, saying they took down six Strontium URLs (their name for ~APT28) blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/…
Here are the alleged APT28 IOCs on @virustotal virustotal.com/#/ip-address/1…

Btw Microsoft, why use a screenshot and not link to VT directly?
Read 11 tweets
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If I were a mystery writer, I’d probably have my unusually observant, serendipitously-everpresent-at-the-scene-of-murders character be a little old widowed church lady in a small Southern town with a massive hat collection. Retired school principal.
Just solving locked room murders in some massive fuchsia Sunday church hat with a net veil and quarter-sized fake pearl buttons.
Fake-pearl-bedecked glasses chain a MUST. This lady would be all about the fake pearls. pear earrings, pearl in her engagement band.

Weirdly indifferent to deceased husband, tho. Turns out she only began solving mysteries as a widow cuz he was holding her back.
Read 6 tweets
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I was asked by Gary Taubes for an interview for his new book in December. At that point I was still open to being collegial with the low carb community. Earlier, for instance, I had corresponded quite a bit with Nina Teicholz. Gary wrote this is why he contacted me.

Thread. 1/21
Before responding to Gary, I re-read Good Calories Bad Calories. I had been contacted by important people before (David Ludwig for instance, who seems to be a great guy and super smart), but I still thought of Gary as THE leader of low carb. 2/21
So I was shocked, flattered and a little confused. Gary wrote that he wanted to interview me about why I become WFPB after being low carb. But what could I offer him that he did not already know? So before responding, I started reading GCBC again, wanting to understand this. 3/21
Read 21 tweets
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Sean Hannity was Right. Hillary Clinton is the queen of "Fix It"
Her hands are in EVERYTHING and everyone goes down, but her.
👇🏽Here is few
Chinagate: Nuclear secrets go to China on her husband’s watch.
The cattle futures: Hillary as commodity trader extraordinaire.
Larry Lawrence: How did a fat cat donor get buried in Arlington National Cemetery without war experience?
Read 17 tweets

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