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Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
As @Sunchartist points out daily, almost everyone is missing the speed that the Indian Rupee is declining... its in free fall, down almost 18% this year... so far.1/
The Indonesia Rupiah is nearly as bad -15% this year...2/
The Chilean Peso is also suffering badly... -19% at its worst, before the pullback 3/
But the South African Rand has been the big one, outside of Turkey, Argentina and Brazil... -36% 4/
When currencies trend, they really trend, and tend to become hyper-reflexive in Emerging Markets and often go further than anyone thinks is possible... Anyone who is looking at the DXY to gauge the dollar is looking at the wrong thing. 5/
The GMI Multi Currency Basket of over 27 currencies, equally weighted vs the USD shows exactly how strong this dollar trend is. After 5 waves down and an A-B-C rally, new lows are on t horizon and maybe very significantly lower than the recent low... it's far from over...
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Europe is on the move... Italian spreads are breaking out... 1/
Spanish spreads have broken their wedge...2/
Portuguese spreads are also widening...3/
Read 7 tweets
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$FB - I think this is likely to lead the market darlings lower. Someone has to crack first, and it appears it's going to be FB. When Google goes, its all over.

Here is the Log chart of FB - Gone.
Here is the daily $FB chart - on key support
Here is the weekly chart and the 200 week moving average. On average, anyone who bought this stock over the last two years is flat and very likely about to lose money...
Read 4 tweets
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A few Sunday morning charts to make you step back a look at exactly how critical things are getting for the Dollar bull market... This is going to dictate the macro narrative for the next 6 months, which ever way is plays out. For me, I think the $ goes much higher, faster.
Exhibit A - The Fed Broad Trade Weighted Dollar Index has formed a huge cup and handle formation. The acceleration phase is close...
Exhibit B - $CNY The Chinese currency will move through 7.00 if the next round of trade wars occur. It will not necessarily be driven by China moving the rate but by the basket moving, thus repricing $CNY.
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

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So..

I want football to be responsible for cleaning up the mess it creates by the Shite financial structure it is responsible for. By football I mean @FA @premierleague and @EFL

I want a fund created so that football pays for the problems it has caused.
This will not be popular to the super gods but I’m saying the gaps in finances between levels in the pyramid, are too severe and too damaging.

These gaps are being funded by mug owners, who are using private cash in an attempt to try to create a more level playing field.
The current situation is that, when mug owners walk away, when they realise that it’s futile, they go rogue.

Year on year, the football financing formula exacerbates this problem.

COMMUNITIES are left to pick up the pieces.

Many clubs go into free fall down through the pyramid
Read 17 tweets
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🚨#Q is back! 🚨

This will be my Q thread for Dec 3rd

Big week ahead, Patriots!

[PAIN IS COMING]
2. QDrop 2537

What are the odds of a state funeral on #D5?
How many coincidences until mathematically impossible?

#QAnon
3. QDrop 2538

Q links an article posted a few days ago regarding the 4 different ongoing investigations into CF and explains further of how [they] have become unhinged.

Panic > RATS
Read 80 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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#Rupee notes
1. in past 4 yrs ₹ gained 20% in REER terms
2. in same period inflation (total) was > 20%
3. means ₹ was losing purchasing power domestically
4. but gaining power internationally
5. not sustainable
6. since domestic & overseas valuation needs some parity
... 1/2
#Rupee notes (contd)
7. hence depreciation inevitable
8. besides 20% REER gain is a TAX on exporters
9. On domestic industry too competing w/ imports
10. w/ Lira down 70% this yr, ZAR too
11. rupee cannot be immune from contagion
12. so this fall is ok makes ₹ competitive
...2/2
over 5 yrs, REER overvalued by >20%
making currency uncompetitive
exports grew at zero %
imports surged feeding consumption
external debt ballooned
real estate bubble.. etc
no, no, not about India
this is #Pakistan
read this excellent thread by @AtifRMian
Read 3 tweets
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Gather round, and I'll tell you the story of the time I went out to eat with friends (tonight) and three old people attempted to pick a fistfight (!) with us because the (almost) two year old with us was laughing too loudly. Thread. 1/
I was with my (white, Jewish) wife, my (black) brother, his (Taiwanese) wife, their (cute) baby, and his wife's brother. This all becomes relevant, sadly. (2018 FTW!) 2/
Their genius daughter is just starting to have words, and is seated across from me. She and I start playing a game where she pretends to splash me, and I react. She's laughing. I'm laughing. Everyone is laughing. She starts playing the game with everyone at the table. 3/
Read 31 tweets
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1/ Manu (The progenitor of Humankind)
All different races of Mankind are derived from Manu and Shradha. The current Manu is Vaivasvata Manu.
2/ The word Manu literary means man but it is a title given to the progenitor of mankind. According to Hindu Puranas there are many kalpas (One day of Lord Brahma the creator) and each Kalpa has 14 manvantara and each manvatara has one manu. So basically each Kalpa has 14 Manus.
3/ The current manu of the present manvantara is Shraddhadeva or Vaivasvata Manu of this current Kalpa. He is the son of Vivasvat (Probably Surya) and is therefore also known as Manu-vaivasvata.
Read 155 tweets

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