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Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
🚨 - EFT Headline assumption about GDP Growth from Trade Liberalization offers as support wild misreading of Australian example.

The EFT say their modelling shows 2-4% growth from liberalization and this is consistent with Australia's 30 year experience.

1/
2/ Minor issue there guys, in 1986 (30 odd years ago) Australia's applied, weighted mean tariff rate of 7%-18.96%.

Under the EU's Schedule, the the UK has a trade weighted average tariff of 1.96-3%.

Source 1: data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.T…
Source 2: data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.T…
3/ For Australia, which has never exactly been a manufacturing powerhouse in most sectors, reducing what were sky high tariffs on near everything generated a lot of benefits.

To suggest the UK could see similar results, even fully liberalizing is insane. There's far less to cut!
4/ In case it isn't obvious, Australia in 1988 also wasn't in a Customs Union with it's largest trading partner, and that Customs Union it wasn't in didn't have FTAs. It also did far less trade with LDCs or developing countries via tariff reducing preferential schemes.
5/ This is all set out in the paper the EFT cites to support its claim.

Prior to tariff cuts in 1988 Australia was among the most protectionist developed countries.

Except in select lines (mainly in Ag) the UK in the EU is among the most liberal.

data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.T…
6/ This shouldn't need explaining, but a morbidly obese patient will probably see greater health improvements from improved diet and exercise than an elite athlete will from cutting out the chocolate bar they eat on their weekly cheat day.
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1/ No-Deal Brexit, Baa-d News for British Sheep Farmers, Tariff Thread

While the EU isn't hugely protectionist when it comes to tariffs, there are individual product types where the bloc is a bit of a fortress. Unfortunately for British sheep farmers, sheepmeat is one of them.
2/ The EU uses a system of tariff quotas for sheep meat.

As a reminder, quotas consist of two different rates, an 'in-quota' and an 'out of quota' rate.

Only a fixed volume (tonnes for sheep) of imports a year are eligible to receive the lower, in-quota rate. The rest are not.
3/ For sheep the in-quota rate is 0%, so tariff free, while the out of quota rate is 12.80% EUR + 171.30 EUR/100kg.

World prices are at around 500 EUR/100kg, so that out of quota rate is equivalent to about a 45% tariff. That's a pretty solid lockout from the market.
Read 16 tweets
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1/ This argument works only if you believe the EU position is founded on the belief the UK is bluffing about its willingness to leave without a deal.

Let's think about that, for a moment, shall we?
2/
** March 28th 2019, 23:40 **

Juncker looks out over the English channel. There! Outlined against the night sky. The magnificent forms of Seaborne Freight ferries warming up their engines. He's underestimated the will of the British people.
3/ He tries to reach PM May. but oppressive EU regulations mean his assistant left hours ago for a compulsory gay marriage to an illegal immigrant.

Desperate, he twitter DM's Boris Johnson, who agrees to negotiate but only in the Telegraph & for 6000 pounds per word.
Read 9 tweets
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Story time:
2001, Australia. The conservative Howard government is trailing badly in the polls heading into a federal election.

Then, the Norwegian freighter "Tampa" picks up 433 drowning Afghans off the coast and Howard turns it into an existential threat to all that's Aussie.
The Tampa is refused dock in Australia and is ultimately boarded by Australian Special Forces.

Ministers, based on fabricated evidence, claimed asylum seekers, "threw their children overboard," saying this proved they weren't the kind of people we want in Australia.
Surging in the polls, the Howard Government then introduced the "Border Protection Bill" and the "Pacific Solution" which lead to Australia still funding and operating what are essentially secretive refugee prison camps in impoverished Pacific Island States.
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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#GDPbkser 1/n Whenever the GDP base is updated for a fast growing economy, the weights on fast growing sub-sectors increase & on slow growing sub-sectors decrease. The new series therefore shows lower growth rt than old in yrs prior to new base & raises it for yrs post new base.2
#GDPbkser (2/n): If memory serves, historically avg GDP gr rt in yrs btwn old & new base yr has been adjusted down by an avg of -0.5% to -0.75%! The current revision is ~2x the historical avg! Thus reweighting would have lowered past GDP gr rt from 8% to 7% to 7.5%! ...3/
#GDPbkser (3/n) So what needs greater analysis is the rest of decrease in GDP growth rate ie the reduction not explained by re-weighting (~-0.65% ). Some points made by critics are either only partially valid or invalid. (a)Comparing chng in nominal gr with chng in real gr...4/
Read 9 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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GDP growth 1.5% for Q2 2018, a drop from 1.95% in Q1. This is not good. One would have thought that low inflation and relatively higher oil prices would have given us a push.

Meanwhile Oil GDP contracted by over 3%. This is what we are building our economy upon.
The funniest thing is that the sectors the Government have insisted on subsidizing by all means - industry and agric - both contracted.

Meanwhile the sector that has come under the heaviest regulatory pressure and messy business environment surged: Services sector.
When are we going to trash this nonsense that we must produce what we eat? Given our unusual environment - poor infrastructure - th services sector should be highly encouraged. But no.

We want to do agric without roads and manufacture without electricity.
Read 10 tweets
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GDP shock: UK economic growth almost grinds to halt in first three months... 0.1% GDP growth in Q1 2018 - worst figure for six years
Weather effect “limited” on that Q1 weak growth figure says ONS
Interesting to see if Government tries to blame it on the weather, when ONS says “limited effect overall”... last time that happened under Osborne, it was fairly easy to point out worse weather in Europe, but higher growth rates....
Read 6 tweets
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1. A thread on #trade and aid.

One of the first tangible benefits of #Brexit I've seen is the emerging reform of @DFID_UK where it is becoming more of an arm of trade policy than a state owned humanitarian NGO. I would like that to go much further and rethink trade.
2. I do not think we should be wasting too much effort on free trade deals largely because they are of questionable value and encourage inefficient value chains. Any work on tariffs should really be reserved for multilateral activity.
3. Instead we need DfID as the spearhead of our trade policy. There is no reason why we cannot pursue humanitarian goals and enhance our trade while we are at it. For a start we can do a lot with medicines and pharmacy products.
Read 21 tweets
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Good morning Twitter! I move to Australia today! 1 like/retweet of this tweet = 1 thing you (maybe) didn't know about Australian #sharks.
Alright, let's get this party started: First, numbers aren't 100% accurate but anywhere from 170-190 species of #sharks call Australian waters home. That's a lot, seeing as how there are roughly 500-ish species.
According to the Australian Government's Department of Environment and Energy, of those 170-190 species, around 70 are thought to be endemic. Endemic means "native to a specific region or environment and not occurring naturally anywhere else."
Read 93 tweets

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