The interesting part is, that the behaviour of the British industry would come as a surprise by some and might even worsen a potential no deal crisis. /1
So far the British industry was remarkably silent over Brexit. Although CBI aired several warning, individual manufactures were rather quite when it comes to negative impacts on Brexit. Prominent warning were rare. /2
One of the main reasons is PR related. The Brexit debate is emotionally loaded and deeply polarising. Any warning might lead to very negative reactions by Leavers ("scaremongering") and might have an impact on the perception and reputation of that company for these people. /3
If you have a significant amount of Leavers among your clients or costumers, you will try to avoid this topic. If you are forced to talk about it you will remain vague - on the Brexit risks but also on assurances regarding your investments and activities post Brexit. /4
The rather polarising nature of this debate lead to people citing and interpolating statements by companies or pressure groups according to what they want to hear. /5
Brexiteers and Leavers will take the vaguely positive statements as reassuring which might build up a rather optimistic expectation post Brexit, even in a no deal scenario. /6
This would explain why Leavers are on tendency way more positive in their outlook for UK's economy post Brexit under any circumstances. Just limited short term problems seem to be anticipated. /7
The problem will be, that private contingency plans didn't incorporate or a state medium or long term negative reactions of employers (cuts of hours, reducing investment etc), it seems there is not even a state of emotional preparedness for heavier negative outcomes. /8
The current behaviour reinforces this state of being unprepared which is in two ways problematic: 1) The crisis (if there is one) might be worsened if the magnitude of the crisis wasn't expected. /9
2) It might reinforce the rather hardline view (especially of Leavers) towards Brexit negotiations pre-Brexit: if the perceived costs of opportunities are low, why should u agree to make concessions. This however increases the chance of no deal & the risk of "no deal" crisis. /10
Consequently the whole situation has a twist: even though it might be self-interest to not explicitly warn of Brexit risks (especially in a no deal scenario), makes it even more likely that the risk actually manifests. /11
Obviously the question might be whether the warnings and strict avoidance of positive noise would change something on the Leavers outlook. But if it does, the current behaviour would reinforces a risk for their own business. /end
