@ToneVays @novogratz Hi Tone, I’m with you that BTC going down v.soon, to be fair to @novogratz, he was referencing the BGCI, index of top10 crypto, rather than BTC price. Actually think he is correct that top10 crypto bounce here – but the #1, Bitcoin, actually falls. Just like we saw in Aug 2014. 
@ToneVays @novogratz Given this is the case I'm with @woonomic, we just bounced on NVT Signal but once that support line breaks 150,we go down. Building on @woonomic great analysis, there are also a couple of other key indicators that will help optimise BTC investment timing during the bear market..
@ToneVays @novogratz @woonomic 2/Simplest option would be to invest 100% into BTC when NVT Signal is below 50 and turns up. From investment (not trading) pov though there are some issues with pulling trigger here. The first is that NVT Signal is experimental, but more important from investment point of view...
@ToneVays @novogratz @woonomic 3/There is opp cost for your investment. As we saw in 2014-15 after capitulation price stayed in range for 10 months. Capital could be better deployed elsewhere during that time until you see confirmation from the following TA and blockchain indicators...
@ToneVays @novogratz @woonomic 4/ The key TA indicator to know we are at end of Bear is market cycle horizontal zone. In 2014-15 the wc11 Nov2013 wick of bull run acted as THE key support and resistance zone during bear market. Breaking above signaled start of next bull run-and perfect entry point.
@ToneVays @novogratz @woonomic 5/This time around weekly candle of wc16 October2017 is now critical support and resistance range. We obeyed as support in 2018, once we break down likely to be strong resistance into 2019 until break above it. Which would be a key indicator signalling start of the next bull run.
@ToneVays @novogratz @woonomic 6/ We can marry that data with blockchain transactions. In the previous cycle, blockchain daily value transactions hitting higher lows of around 250k BTC coincided with the next mega bull run. So worth keeping an eye on price as we approach that data point this time around.
